Other Theseus's calibration
Grade: C, Score: -5.6
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Other Theseus bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Will Donald Trump be indicted for any crimes in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023?YESṀ20
- Will Destiny have a sexual relationship with another mentally ill women in 2023 that leads to more drama?YESṀ10
- Will The Speaker of the House be Officially Chosen before Destiny gets Fiber Internet at his new Apartment?NOṀ10
70%
90%