Will NASA's reported 2024 avg temperature be closer to 2023's than 2022's?
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Ṁ1258Feb 2
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Source of truth: this simple text file linked from here ("No_Smoothing" column). When that file contains a row for 2024, this market will resolve YES if the magnitude of the 2024-2023 delta is smaller than the magnitude of the 2024-2022 delta; otherwise, NO.
(If that file ceases to be NASA's seeming source of truth before 2025, I'll use my judgement to find the new real one.)
(If the deltas are exactly equal (e.g. ['22=.89, '23=1.21, '24=1.05]) then this market resolves NO.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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