Will average world temperature for 2024 be higher than 2023?
85
623
1.1k
2025
67%
chance

Clearly temperatures are trending up, but 2023 was particularly hot. Was it a spike or will 2024 surpass 2023 in average global temperature?

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

Really need to specify which dataset you're using here.

predicts YES

@ScottSupak And whether ties will be resolved as YES, NO, or PROB(50%).

@StevenK I'll give @RyanWilson some time to fix it, but if he doesn't I'll just make one.

predicts YES

@ScottSupak I tried making a market that's robust to random data errors here https://manifold.markets/StevenK/will-2024-be-the-warmest-year-on-re-d261343f1367

(warmest on record of course being equivalent to higher than 2023)

According to NASA's forecasts, 2024 is anticipated to experience temperatures that break the previous record set in 2023. This prediction has been confirmed by the World Meteorological Organization, which advises that within the next five years, global temperatures might reach catastrophic levels. According to another research cited by Down To Earth, 2023 was the hottest year ever recorded, paving the way for perhaps further rising temperatures in 2024. When taken as a whole, these sources show that scientists generally agree that the average global temperature in 2024 will be higher than it was in 2023.

YES. Since 1880, NASA GISS has observed an increase in the average global temperature by at least 1.1° Celsius (1.9° Fahrenheit). This warming was particularly pronounced after 1975, registering a rate of roughly 0.15 to 0.20°C per decade.

From a statistical perspective, if we simplify this trend as linear, considering only the 0.15 to 0.20°C increase per decade, it translates to an approximate increase of 0.015 to 0.020°C annually. Given that there haven't been any significant changes to curb global warming and, in the absence of other external factors (e.g., substantial volcanic eruptions, unexpected decrease in greenhouse gas emissions), it's statistically plausible to expect a similar, if not greater, rise from 2023 to 2024.

References: NASA Earth Observatory. (n.d.). World of Change: Global temperatures. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/global-temperatures

bought Ṁ50 of NO

My bet is back to the mean. 2044 will be hotter for sure.