Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?

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NOAA just released their latest report, which estimates there's currently a 45% chance 2024 will be the hottest year on record. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-202402

bought Ṁ10 of NO

To have a proper estimate I forecasted the gobal temperature increase starting from 1977. Considering data before that year would compromise the accuracy of the forecast since the world has been changing really fast in the last 40 years compared to the first half of last century. My regression model (adjusted R square = 90%) forecastes a 1.05°C for 2024. Therefore, I believe next year will not be the hottest ever recorded, which is 2016 with 1.08°C.

@GiovanniGhedini Seems very wrong considering 2023 will be 0.15°+ hotter than the prior record. The highest temperature in your entire 2024-2028 table is only 0.09° hotter than 2016...

Time to heat up the planet.

The question is about 2024, but your description refers to the current year. Just to make sure, are you asking about 2024 or actually 2023 and typo'ed it?

predicts YES

@__nobody Dang I did typo it.

predicts NO

@BTE wait, so which year is this for then? I don't see a description, just 2024 in the title

predicts YES

@AlQuinn Yes I erased the description. There is also a 2023 market. /BTE/will-2023-be-the-hottest-year-on-re-f6c3123a520b

predicts NO

@BTE ah good, just double checking. I'm NO here mostly because mean-reversion