Will the Russia-Ukraine war end by 2024?
closes 2024

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ShadowyZephyr avatar

Alright, so about the "when does 'by 2024' mean" question, here are the first 10 manifold markets I found with the phrase "by 2024" in their titles (technically I found 11, but I accidentally closed one and it's not here):

Out of these, 5 (6 if you count the one I closed) interpret this as "by the end of 2024" and 5 interpret this as "by the beginning of 2024."

So, it seems like they are similarly, and both interpretations are valid. I think it's up to the market creator which they want to choose, and they have obviously chosen "by the beginning of 2024" so we should stick with that.

Given that, I am buying NO.

NamesAreHard avatar
NamesAreHardis predicting NO at 12%

@ShadowyZephyr Yeah, people tend to use this both ways and the market close date is the clear distinguishing factor which makes it unambiguous.

Bart5f6d avatar
Bertis predicting YES at 11%

I am not sure if the market creator is a native English speaker, but "by 2024" means before or during 2024.

Bart5f6d avatar
Bertbought Ṁ50 of YES

@Bart5f6d For example "by 2023 the world population will be 8 billion" means that the world population will be 8 billion sometime in 2023.

akrasiac avatar

@Bart5f6d I don't agree with you. I am a native English speaker, and I think it's unclear. "by 2024" could mean either "by the end of 2024" or "by the start of 2024." Since this market's close date is 12/31/23, I think they actually meant "by the start of 2024."

NGK avatar

@Bart5f6d I mean just look at the date the market closes. When I hear "by 2024" i assume the start of the year. Otherwise the phrase would be "by year-end"

ShadowyZephyr avatar

As a native English speaker, I think the MUCH more common intepretation of "by 2024" is by the beginning of year, AKA before 2024. Maybe it's regional.

AngolaMaldives avatar
Angola Maldivesbought Ṁ100 of NO

To clarify, 'by 2024' means in the next 8 months, right?

Bart5f6d avatar
Bertbought Ṁ45 of YES

@AngolaMaldives The phrase "it will happen by 2024" refers to a future event that is expected to occur sometime before or during the year 2024.

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