Will the Russia-Ukraine war end by 2024?
resolved Jan 1

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Alright, so about the "when does 'by 2024' mean" question, here are the first 10 manifold markets I found with the phrase "by 2024" in their titles (technically I found 11, but I accidentally closed one and it's not here):

Out of these, 5 (6 if you count the one I closed) interpret this as "by the end of 2024" and 5 interpret this as "by the beginning of 2024."

So, it seems like they are similarly, and both interpretations are valid. I think it's up to the market creator which they want to choose, and they have obviously chosen "by the beginning of 2024" so we should stick with that.

Given that, I am buying NO.

predicted NO

@ShadowyZephyr Yeah, people tend to use this both ways and the market close date is the clear distinguishing factor which makes it unambiguous.

predicted YES

I am not sure if the market creator is a native English speaker, but "by 2024" means before or during 2024.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@Bart5f6d For example "by 2023 the world population will be 8 billion" means that the world population will be 8 billion sometime in 2023.

@Bart5f6d I don't agree with you. I am a native English speaker, and I think it's unclear. "by 2024" could mean either "by the end of 2024" or "by the start of 2024." Since this market's close date is 12/31/23, I think they actually meant "by the start of 2024."

@Bart5f6d I mean just look at the date the market closes. When I hear "by 2024" i assume the start of the year. Otherwise the phrase would be "by year-end"

As a native English speaker, I think the MUCH more common intepretation of "by 2024" is by the beginning of year, AKA before 2024. Maybe it's regional.

@akrasiac It’s contextual. If the professor tells you your paper is due by tomorrow, it means sometime tomorrow. If I tell you I’ll have my book done by 2025, I’m not late if I finish in July 2025. Points in time are clearer than periods of time.

predicted YES

@Bart5f6d both understandings goes in Manifold. I always try to say by 2024 year end or whatever. Whenever in doubt, check the end marker date

bought Ṁ100 of NO

To clarify, 'by 2024' means in the next 8 months, right?

bought Ṁ45 of YES

@AngolaMaldives The phrase "it will happen by 2024" refers to a future event that is expected to occur sometime before or during the year 2024.