Alright, so about the "when does 'by 2024' mean" question, here are the first 10 manifold markets I found with the phrase "by 2024" in their titles (technically I found 11, but I accidentally closed one and it's not here):
https://manifold.markets/ScottLawrence/will-chris-sununu-run-for-president
https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-rigetti-computing-inc-still-ex
https://manifold.markets/brp/will-the-us-national-average-retail
https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-a-character-who-has-not-appear
https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-ev-battery-swapping-stations-e
https://manifold.markets/MattReardon/will-the-twitter-bird-return-by-202
https://manifold.markets/ResearchBet/will-an-mrna-vaccine-for-cancer-be
https://manifold.markets/RobinGreen/will-the-us-obesity-rate-stop-risin
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-total-us-military-expenditure
https://manifold.markets/toms/will-china-get-involved-in-the-russ
Out of these, 5 (6 if you count the one I closed) interpret this as "by the end of 2024" and 5 interpret this as "by the beginning of 2024."
So, it seems like they are similarly, and both interpretations are valid. I think it's up to the market creator which they want to choose, and they have obviously chosen "by the beginning of 2024" so we should stick with that.
Given that, I am buying NO.
@ShadowyZephyr Yeah, people tend to use this both ways and the market close date is the clear distinguishing factor which makes it unambiguous.
I am not sure if the market creator is a native English speaker, but "by 2024" means before or during 2024.
@Bart5f6d https://manifold.markets/juraj/will-the-russiaukraine-war-end-by-2-75b01cd08ac8 this one is more explicit. feel free to trade
As a native English speaker, I think the MUCH more common intepretation of "by 2024" is by the beginning of year, AKA before 2024. Maybe it's regional.
@AngolaMaldives The phrase "it will happen by 2024" refers to a future event that is expected to occur sometime before or during the year 2024.
