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Alright, so about the "when does 'by 2024' mean" question, here are the first 10 manifold markets I found with the phrase "by 2024" in their titles (technically I found 11, but I accidentally closed one and it's not here):
https://manifold.markets/ScottLawrence/will-chris-sununu-run-for-president
https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-rigetti-computing-inc-still-ex
https://manifold.markets/brp/will-the-us-national-average-retail
https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-a-character-who-has-not-appear
https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-ev-battery-swapping-stations-e
https://manifold.markets/MattReardon/will-the-twitter-bird-return-by-202
https://manifold.markets/ResearchBet/will-an-mrna-vaccine-for-cancer-be
https://manifold.markets/RobinGreen/will-the-us-obesity-rate-stop-risin
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-total-us-military-expenditure
https://manifold.markets/toms/will-china-get-involved-in-the-russ
Out of these, 5 (6 if you count the one I closed) interpret this as "by the end of 2024" and 5 interpret this as "by the beginning of 2024."
So, it seems like they are similarly, and both interpretations are valid. I think it's up to the market creator which they want to choose, and they have obviously chosen "by the beginning of 2024" so we should stick with that.
Given that, I am buying NO.
@ShadowyZephyr Yeah, people tend to use this both ways and the market close date is the clear distinguishing factor which makes it unambiguous.
@Bart5f6d For example "by 2023 the world population will be 8 billion" means that the world population will be 8 billion sometime in 2023.
@Bart5f6d https://manifold.markets/juraj/will-the-russiaukraine-war-end-by-2-75b01cd08ac8 this one is more explicit. feel free to trade
@Bart5f6d I don't agree with you. I am a native English speaker, and I think it's unclear. "by 2024" could mean either "by the end of 2024" or "by the start of 2024." Since this market's close date is 12/31/23, I think they actually meant "by the start of 2024."
@Bart5f6d I mean just look at the date the market closes. When I hear "by 2024" i assume the start of the year. Otherwise the phrase would be "by year-end"
@akrasiac It’s contextual. If the professor tells you your paper is due by tomorrow, it means sometime tomorrow. If I tell you I’ll have my book done by 2025, I’m not late if I finish in July 2025. Points in time are clearer than periods of time.
@Bart5f6d both understandings goes in Manifold. I always try to say by 2024 year end or whatever. Whenever in doubt, check the end marker date
@AngolaMaldives The phrase "it will happen by 2024" refers to a future event that is expected to occur sometime before or during the year 2024.