Will the Russia-Ukraine war end by 2024 (explicitly by 1st of January 2025)?
14
1kṀ1535
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

By end we are talking about end of large-scale military conflict that we have today.

1/20 of tensions in the territorires that are conflicted or less would be acceptable as long as risks in economical, political, global sense and the threat is also at the same time 1/20 or less in scale. There was a small scale conflict before the invasion and it was not called war by most of the media. That is the utility of those words., to not count small scale conflict as an actual war. However, small scale conflict has to be 1/20 or smaller of the current scale so possibly the small scale conflict would still count because there was actually a lot of tension on so many levels before the invasion.

This market will resolve only after one month of 95%+ reduction of conflict for YES condition. If the conflict is still at more than 5% of intesity - the war will be counted as not ended (resolved NO)

All compared to today 18.4.2023

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ41
2Ṁ31
3Ṁ23
4Ṁ18
5Ṁ16
Sort by:

Congrats to the winners in this small market. I was wrong on this one. altough I risked allmost nothing.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules