Will the Russia-Ukraine war end by 2024 (explicitly by 1st of January 2025)?
Dec 31

By end we are talking about end of large-scale military conflict that we have today.

1/20 of tensions in the territorires that are conflicted or less would be acceptable as long as risks in economical, political, global sense and the threat is also at the same time 1/20 or less in scale. There was a small scale conflict before the invasion and it was not called war by most of the media. That is the utility of those words., to not count small scale conflict as an actual war. However, small scale conflict has to be 1/20 or smaller of the current scale so possibly the small scale conflict would still count because there was actually a lot of tension on so many levels before the invasion.

This market will resolve only after one month of 95%+ reduction of conflict for YES condition. If the conflict is still at more than 5% of intesity - the war will be counted as not ended (resolved NO)

All compared to today 18.4.2023

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