Will the Russia-Ukraine war end by 2024 (explicitly by 1st of January 2025)?
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end by 2024 (explicitly by 1st of January 2025)?
14
1kṀ1535
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

By end we are talking about end of large-scale military conflict that we have today.

1/20 of tensions in the territorires that are conflicted or less would be acceptable as long as risks in economical, political, global sense and the threat is also at the same time 1/20 or less in scale. There was a small scale conflict before the invasion and it was not called war by most of the media. That is the utility of those words., to not count small scale conflict as an actual war. However, small scale conflict has to be 1/20 or smaller of the current scale so possibly the small scale conflict would still count because there was actually a lot of tension on so many levels before the invasion.

This market will resolve only after one month of 95%+ reduction of conflict for YES condition. If the conflict is still at more than 5% of intesity - the war will be counted as not ended (resolved NO)

All compared to today 18.4.2023

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ41
2Ṁ31
3Ṁ23
4Ṁ18
5Ṁ16


Sort by:
3mo

Congrats to the winners in this small market. I was wrong on this one. altough I risked allmost nothing.

1y

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules