There is some news suggesting that the world will undergo an onion shortage. Currently the US national average per-pound retail prices for non-organic red, white, and yellow dry onions are $1.28, $0.94, and $1.08, respectively, and have increased 20%, 8%, and 33% on prices one year ago, respectively. This market resolves on Jan 1 2024 to 33% if one of these varieties has doubled in retail per-pound price, 67% for two, and 100% if all of them double in price by Dec. 31, 2024. Note that Market closes and (hopefully) will resolve midday on Jan 1.
If all 3 varieties double in price before Jan 1 2024, this market may resolve YES early. Post a screenshot in the comments to request early resolution.
1,000
3.00With thanks to @MJ for getting my attention. Unfortunately the USDA marketnews database which I was planning to use for resolution appears to have stopped updating on September 1st: https://www.marketnews.usda.gov/mnp/fv-report-retail?repType=&run=&portal=fv&locChoose=&commodityClass=&startIndex=1&type=retail&class=ONIONS+AND+POTATOES&commodity=ONIONS+DRY®ion=NATIONAL&organic=N&repDate=08%2F26%2F2023&endDate=12%2F29%2F2023&compareLy=No
At the last point for which prices were available, the prices were:
Red: 1.32
White: 1.19
Yellow: 0.78
The max prices between Feb. 26 and Sept. 1 were:
Red: 1.78 (Aug. 25)
White: 1.19 (Sept. 1)
Yellow: 1.44 (June 23)
These are not double, so the market does not automatically resolve YES based on the available data points. On the other hand, the official data source no longer updating means I cannot in good faith resolve the market at all. Will resolve N/A for now and come back to look at it again if the data source updates.
@BrendanFinan A good point to consider. The law states
"No contract for the sale of motion picture box office receipts (or any index, measure, value, or data related to such receipts) or onions for future delivery shall be made on or subject to the rules of any board of trade in the United States."
The "index, measure, value, or data" clause is limited to box office receipts ("related to such receipts"), and this market will not result in any onions being delivered in the future. I think we're in the clear.
That said, there is a possibility that case law has interpreted the "index, measure, value, or data" clause to cover onions too, in which case this market would be illegal. I will resolve the market N/A if anyone brings up relevant case law. I will also create a market where you can try to convince me for M$ profit.