Will the US obesity rate stop rising by 2024?
31
1kṀ4843
Dec 31
40%
chance
8

There is conflicting information on the current obesity rate, but there is no disagreement that is has been rising every year, and has been rising for decades. Will semaglutide, inflation, or anything else, stem the tide?

Resolution date is delayed by 1 year to allow data collection and analysis to take place. Resolves as "yes" if the US obesity rate stays the same in 2024 as it was in 2023, or falls.

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bought Ṁ100 YES

New Gallup results show a decline in 2024. This is a larger dataset than CDC NHANES.

CDC report from September has a very mild decrease from 2021-2023 vs 2017-2020, which is the first time in decades that there wasn't an increase.

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama-health-forum/fullarticle/2827712

Slight decrease from ‘22-‘23

bought Ṁ250 YES

https://x.com/BoyanSlat/status/1860730846795145268

@RobinGreen what is the source of truth?

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