Will there be a recession in the US within the next 12 months?
resolved Oct 16
Close date updated to 2023-04-07 11:59 pm
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sorry all, forgot about this

predicted YES

@OliverS I think it has been 12 months and no recession has been announced. Please can you resolve this NO, or let us know what you're thinking? Thanks.

predicted NO

How long will you wait for NBER to announce a recession before resolving @OliverS?

(and why not leave the market open in the meantime?)

bought Ṁ10 of YES

The markets rise and fall like tides,
Economy's fate no one decides.
But signs of trouble may arise,
Inflation's shadow looms and sighs.

predicted YES

okay, resolve

predicted NO
predicted YES

@IsaacKing Since the poll started the US has had 2 quarters of economic contraction.

The classic definition of a recession.

Change the judge, definition or wait for more in-depth analyses but the posted GDP is posted GDP. It recessed. A recession...

@ChrisLeng I state in the comments that I'm using NBER which does not use the 2 quarters rule.

@OliverS Can you please edit that into the market description so people actually see that stipulation?

predicted YES

@Jotto999 Seconded.

bought Ṁ10 of YES
@OliverS please clarify what you're using to determine resolution. If it's the standard NBER, then resolution shouldn't happen as 'No' until roughly September 2023, since they take a long time to officially declare recessions.
@JiSK Yes I'll be using NBER
predicted NO
Note that the Kalshi market is not quite equivalent, since it resolves positively with just 1 quarter of negative GDP growth, which we've already had—Q1 2022. Economists usually prefer 2 quarters of negative growth, although the NBER doesn't always follow this rule of thumb precisely.
bought Ṁ100 of YES
Relevant Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/events/RECSS-22JUL/markets/RECSS-22JUL
bought Ṁ10 of YES

@bcongdon this market resolved to yes

bought Ṁ20 of NO
Assuming resolution criteria is NBER, although it would be nice to have clarity on that. The probability that a given 12-month window that does not start in a recession includes a recession is approximately 20% from eyeballing this graph: https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating - meaning on base rates this will resolve to NO. The risk is slightly higher due to being "due" for one, and also the relatively high levels of inflation (which means that the federal reserve is more likely to deploy measures to curtail inflation at the expense of other market factors like employment rate).