Will there be a recession in the US within the next 12 months?

Oliver S

closes Apr 8

Economics Global Macro

44%

chance

ALL

Close date updated to 2023-04-07 11:59 pm

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Chris Lengis predicting YES at 47%

okay, resolve

Isaac Kingis predicting NO at 47%

@ChrisLeng Why?

Chris Lengis predicting YES at 47%

@IsaacKing Since the poll started the US has had 2 quarters of economic contraction.

The classic definition of a recession.

Change the judge, definition or wait for more in-depth analyses but the posted GDP is posted GDP. It recessed. A recession...

Oliver S

@ChrisLeng I state in the comments that I'm using NBER which does not use the 2 quarters rule.

Jotto 999

@OliverS Can you please edit that into the market description so people actually see that stipulation?

Nico Dis predicting YES at 48%

@Jotto999 Seconded.

JiSKbought Ṁ10 of YES@OliverS please clarify what you're using to determine resolution. If it's the standard NBER, then resolution shouldn't happen as 'No' until roughly September 2023, since they take a long time to officially declare recessions.

Oliver S @JiSK Yes I'll be using NBER

Rahul Sridharis predicting NO at 79% Note that the Kalshi market is not quite equivalent, since it resolves positively with just 1 quarter of negative GDP growth, which we've already had—Q1 2022. Economists usually prefer 2 quarters of negative growth, although the NBER doesn't always follow this rule of thumb precisely.

Benbought Ṁ100 of YESRelevant Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/events/RECSS-22JUL/markets/RECSS-22JUL

firstuserherebought Ṁ10 of YES

@bcongdon this market resolved to yes

Dan Forootanbought Ṁ100 of YEShttps://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/us-q1-gdp-growth.html

Dan Forootanbought Ṁ10 of YESBased on https://voxeu.org/article/overheating-conditions-indicate-high-probability-us-recession

Stephen Bennettbought Ṁ20 of NOAssuming resolution criteria is NBER, although it would be nice to have clarity on that. The probability that a given 12-month window that does not start in a recession includes a recession is approximately 20% from eyeballing this graph: https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating - meaning on base rates this will resolve to NO. The risk is slightly higher due to being "due" for one, and also the relatively high levels of inflation (which means that the federal reserve is more likely to deploy measures to curtail inflation at the expense of other market factors like employment rate).

Isaac Kingbought Ṁ1 of NORelevant market: https://manifold.markets/fortenforge/will-the-us-experience-a-recession