Will there be a recession in the US within the next 12 months?

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resolved Oct 16

Resolved

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Close date updated to 2023-04-07 11:59 pm

Economics

Global Macro

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sorry all, forgot about this

predictedYES

@OliverS I think it has been 12 months and no recession has been announced. Please can you resolve this NO, or let us know what you're thinking? Thanks.

predictedNO

How long will you wait for NBER to announce a recession before resolving @OliverS?

(and why not leave the market open in the meantime?)

The markets rise and fall like tides,
Economy's fate no one decides.
But signs of trouble may arise,
Inflation's shadow looms and sighs.

predictedYES

okay, resolve

predictedNO

@ChrisLeng Why?

predictedYES

@IsaacKing Since the poll started the US has had 2 quarters of economic contraction.

The classic definition of a recession.

Change the judge, definition or wait for more in-depth analyses but the posted GDP is posted GDP. It recessed. A recession...

@ChrisLeng I state in the comments that I'm using NBER which does not use the 2 quarters rule.

@OliverS Can you please edit that into the market description so people actually see that stipulation?

predictedYES

@Jotto999 Seconded.

@OliverS please clarify what you're using to determine resolution. If it's the standard NBER, then resolution shouldn't happen as 'No' until roughly September 2023, since they take a long time to officially declare recessions.

@JiSK Yes I'll be using NBER

predictedNO

Note that the Kalshi market is not quite equivalent, since it resolves positively with just 1 quarter of negative GDP growth, which we've already had—Q1 2022. Economists usually prefer 2 quarters of negative growth, although the NBER doesn't always follow this rule of thumb precisely.

Relevant Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/events/RECSS-22JUL/markets/RECSS-22JUL

@bcongdon this market resolved to yes

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/us-q1-gdp-growth.html

Based on https://voxeu.org/article/overheating-conditions-indicate-high-probability-us-recession

Assuming resolution criteria is NBER, although it would be nice to have clarity on that. The probability that a given 12-month window that does not start in a recession includes a recession is approximately 20% from eyeballing this graph: https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating - meaning on base rates this will resolve to NO. The risk is slightly higher due to being "due" for one, and also the relatively high levels of inflation (which means that the federal reserve is more likely to deploy measures to curtail inflation at the expense of other market factors like employment rate).