Will there be a recession in the US within the next 12 months?
44%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Close date updated to 2023-04-07 11:59 pm
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Chris Lengis predicting YES at 47%
@IsaacKing Since the poll started the US has had 2 quarters of economic contraction.
The classic definition of a recession.
Change the judge, definition or wait for more in-depth analyses but the posted GDP is posted GDP. It recessed. A recession...
Oliver S
@ChrisLeng I state in the comments that I'm using NBER which does not use the 2 quarters rule.


Rahul Sridharis predicting NO at 79% Note that the Kalshi market is not quite equivalent, since it resolves positively with just 1 quarter of negative GDP growth, which we've already had—Q1 2022. Economists usually prefer 2 quarters of negative growth, although the NBER doesn't always follow this rule of thumb precisely.
Benbought Ṁ100 of YESRelevant Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/events/RECSS-22JUL/markets/RECSS-22JUL

Dan Forootanbought Ṁ10 of YESBased on https://voxeu.org/article/overheating-conditions-indicate-high-probability-us-recession
Stephen Bennettbought Ṁ20 of NOAssuming resolution criteria is NBER, although it would be nice to have clarity on that. The probability that a given 12-month window that does not start in a recession includes a recession is approximately 20% from eyeballing this graph: https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating - meaning on base rates this will resolve to NO.
The risk is slightly higher due to being "due" for one, and also the relatively high levels of inflation (which means that the federal reserve is more likely to deploy measures to curtail inflation at the expense of other market factors like employment rate).
Isaac Kingbought Ṁ1 of NORelevant market: https://manifold.markets/fortenforge/will-the-us-experience-a-recession
YES shares
488
459
350
260
260
202
200
158
127
120
108
97
93
NO shares
2,258
374
305
301
210
96
93
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