"The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace.

"These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East."

Will at least the maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea happen before the end of April ?

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if a formal maritime ceasefire agreement specifically covering the Black Sea (either as part of a limited scope agreement or full ceasefire) is implemented and takes effect before 11:59 PM UTC on April 30, 2024.

The market resolves to NO if:

• No maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea is formally announced by the deadline

• A ceasefire is announced but not implemented/effective before the deadline

• Negotiations are ongoing but no formal agreement is reached by the deadline

• The ceasefire discussions are abandoned or postponed beyond April