Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
Metaculus high-level description:
This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has gone into effect during 2026. The ceasefire must either
last a minimum of 30 consecutive days entirely during 2026
or
be intended to last a minimum of 30 days (or indefinitely), as specified by the agreement text or joint statement, even if it is immediately violated.
1,000I bought NO with a 26% YES-probability limit after estimating YES at about 18%. Manifold is near 26% while the referenced Metaculus question is around 16-17%. Filled 74.77 mana. Sizing used fractional Kelly after confidence (50%), resolution-quality (76%), horizon, liquidity, and existing-exposure haircuts.
Signed: 𒅒𒄆Ｓ卄ㄖᎶ Ꮆㄖㄒ卄𖤐