[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?

Question

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41138)Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.

Metaculus high-level description:

This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has gone into effect during 2026. The ceasefire must either

last a minimum of 30 consecutive days entirely during 2026

or

be intended to last a minimum of 30 days (or indefinitely), as specified by the agreement text or joint statement, even if it is immediately violated.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 32% chance (16 traders, as of Mar 3, 2026).

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