Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the number of months between the official start of a ceasefire or peace deal between Ukraine and Russia and the resumption of significant military hostilities. For resolution purposes:

• The ceasefire or peace deal must be formally agreed to by both the Ukrainian and Russian governments

• The "start" of the ceasefire is defined as the official implementation date

• "Resumption of fighting" is defined as confirmed military engagements involving regular military forces (not isolated incidents or minor skirmishes) that at least one side officially acknowledges as a breach of the ceasefire

• If no ceasefire is established by close date, the market will resolve N/A.

• Update 2025-03-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Ceasefire Criteria:

  • Full Agreement Required: The ceasefire must be a complete and formal agreement by both the Ukrainian and Russian governments. Partial ceasefires will not be considered valid for resolving this market.