When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict? [METACULUS]

Question

Resolves according to this Metaculus question:

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/18546)If that question is unavailable, I'll do my best to resolve in the same spirit.

Individual questions may resolve some time after the date passes, depending on conditions and my judgment; sometimes Metaculus resolves to dates in the past and I don't want to have a re-resolution situation.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, By 2030-01-01, followed by By 2028-01-01 and By 2027-01-01 are most likely. See the market for live updates (9 traders, as of Oct 9, 2026).

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