Will a human pass the asteroid belt before 2044?
9
10
190
2043
10%
chance

Human must be alive at point they have cleared the asteroid belt. They do not need to return home. Reaching the asteroid belt is not enough to resolve YES.

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how far is "past the asteroid belt" exactly, in your estimation? Is this basically a "will we mount a somewhat successful Jovian mission by [date]" kind of market?

predicts NO

@AndrewHartman Jovian, or beyond. I’m not sure there’s much of interest between the belt and Jupiter, if a crewed mission did go partway between and then turn around I would have to make a judgement call. Good clarification!