Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2041?
Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

You can reach the orbit with Starship, can’t you? Why wouldn’t it be done if starship works?

@lukres You can’t land on Venus and live. Therefore the only mission* would be to orbit Venus and come home. What value does a human add on that mission that justifies eight months on a round trip there? Billionaire moron tourists aren’t going to agree to that.

* yeah I know we could potentially build a city in the clouds but I don’t believe that happens within a decade of us getting back on the moon.

predicts NO

@lukres Even the robots don't live very long on Venus. This is the only real and clear photo that exists of it. I believe the probe only lasted a few minutes.

@BTE The question asks about Venus orbit, doesn’t mention landing or entering the atmosphere. Am I missing something?

predicts NO

@lukres You’re not missing anything, but that means the question is actually “what can a human meaningfully want to do in Venus orbit that they can’t do in orbit anywhere else?”

And then the answer to that question has to justify the incredible cost and human life-hours involved.

@Noit I could see it being done as a prelude to Mars missions (which would likely involve flyover without landing initially) since ot takes less energy to get to Venus than Mars.. If not that, then DearMoon mission has no reason besides being cool and Starship flight to Venus would be cheaper (I assume, if Starship works as intended, with orbital refuelling and all) and cooler.

I think “yes” is a steal at 10-20%..

predicts NO

@lukres Solar radiation alone would be much more dangerous flying towards the sun, no?

predicts YES

@BTE There is a mission design for a Mars orbital mission where Venus is used for gravity assist (and then we can have an argument 2033 if it counts as elliptical orbit for the purpose of this market, but the description never states that it has to complete a whole orbit). It states that Venus flyby would shorten the whole mission and that there would be more radiation but for a shorter duration.


predicts YES

@Noit They were seriously considering it in the 1970s already https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby

predicts NO

@lukres Ok, I buy the Venus transit to Mars significantly higher than I buy Venus direct.

@Noit transiting wouldn't count since the orbit needs to be elliptical.

I hope they at least get a first party game controller for their spaceship.

More related questions