Will a human land on any celestial body other than Earth, the Moon, or Mars before 2040?
21
1kṀ1537
2040
20%
chance

"Landing" on a gas giant means being inside its atmosphere at a pressure of 1 Earth atmosphere or above.

"Landing" on an asteroid or comet or tiny moon can only occur if it has enough gravity to be meaningfully walked on, without needing something else to hold the astronaut down.

Space
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will a human walk on Mars before 2040?
55% chance
Will a human walk on Mars before 2044?
64% chance
Will a human land on any planetary body that is not the Earth, the Moon, or Mars before 2075?
73% chance
Will a human land on the Sun by 2040?
2% chance
Will NASA land a person on the moon before 2026?
2% chance
Will a human from any nation other than the United States land on the Moon and successfully return by the end of 2040?
80% chance
Will any spacecraft land or otherwise come to be on at least 3 astronomical bodies before 2040?
46% chance
Will a country other than the United States land a human on the moon before the end of 2031?
61% chance
By the start of 2026, will any human being (save for the 12 Apollo astronauts who walked on the Moon) have walked on the surface of any celestial body other than Earth?
4% chance
Will a human land on the moon before 2028?
14% chance
Sort by:
bought Ṁ2 YES

Fly-by of a near-earth asteroid should be trivial; landing perhaps not so much. But still..

I propose we go to the Sun.

For those who claim it's too hot, I present the obvious solution:

we'll go at night.

What are the candidates here? Martian moons?

predictedYES

@GustavoMafra Also moons of gas giants, asteroids, dwarf planets and Mercury

Is it okay if I manipulate this market by blasting my enemies into the sun?

@MartinRandall That's fine, though perhaps inadvisable.

I'm gonna be disappointed if we don't throw a tennis ball to escape velocity by hand from Phobos before 2040

My similar market for 2050:
https://manifold.markets/DAL59/will-humans-land-on-a-planet-dwarf

People are also trading

Will a human walk on Mars before 2040?
-5% 1d55% chance
Will a human walk on Mars before 2044?
-3% 1d64% chance
Will a human land on any planetary body that is not the Earth, the Moon, or Mars before 2075?
73% chance
Will a human land on the Sun by 2040?
2% chance
Will NASA land a person on the moon before 2026?
2% chance
Will a human from any nation other than the United States land on the Moon and successfully return by the end of 2040?
80% chance
Will any spacecraft land or otherwise come to be on at least 3 astronomical bodies before 2040?
46% chance
Will a country other than the United States land a human on the moon before the end of 2031?
61% chance
By the start of 2026, will any human being (save for the 12 Apollo astronauts who walked on the Moon) have walked on the surface of any celestial body other than Earth?
4% chance
Will a human land on the moon before 2028?
14% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy