Nishant Date's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.99
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Nishant Date bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
20%
30%
- Will Destiny complete the "true ending" of the Factorio Space Exploration modpack?NOṀ20
- Will Destiny's side channel "Last Night On Destiny" have more monthly views than Vaush's main channel at the end of the November?YESṀ10
- Will Biden mention GPT/LLMs/Foundation Models during his State of The Union on 02/07/2023NOṀ10
40%
50%
60%
70%