Will "Last Week Tonight with John Oliver" release a segment on AI safety before 2024? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2024

Will "Last Week Tonight with John Oliver" release a segment on AI safety before 2024?

63%

chance

This question resolves to "YES" if a segment discussing AI safety as its primary subject is aired on "Last Week Tonight with John Oliver" before the start of the year 2024. A segment discussing AI safety within a specific subfield would count, while a segment discussing AI safety as only part of a greater theme would not. For instance, a segment on the subject of "AI in Education" or "Chatbots" would count, provided it discussed safety issues involving AI in education or chatbots (as opposed to simply discussing these concepts at a meta-level), while a segment on "Bail Reform" mentioning algorithmic risk assessment at one point would not.

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bought Ṁ5 of NO

Seems way overconfident unless someone has inside info on this. Just betting M$5 for bragging rights, though. Time horizon is too long to justify investing a significant amount.

bought Ṁ10 YES from 62% to 63%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 61% to 62%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 60% to 61%

bought Ṁ15 YES from 58% to 60%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 57% to 58%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 59% to 57%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 61% to 59%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 59% to 61%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 58% to 59%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ100 NO at 58% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 YES from 58% to 60%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 57% to 58%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 55% to 57%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 YES at 55% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ50 NO from 66% to 54%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 65% to 66%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 68% to 65%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ13/Ṁ100 YES at 68% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ30 NO from 75% to 66%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 79% to 75%

sold Ṁ0 NO at 79%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 82% to 79%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ100 NO at 82% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ50 YES from 78% to 83%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ100 NO at 78% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 YES from 78% to 79%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 76% to 78%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 75% to 76%

bought Ṁ15 NO from 81% to 75%

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 82% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 82% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 82% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 82% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 YES from 80% to 81%

created limit order for Ṁ2 YES at 80% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ5 YES at 80% (cancelled)

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ9 YES at 77%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ100 NO at 80% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 YES from 80% to 81%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 79% to 80%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 77% to 79%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 75% to 77%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 74% to 75%

created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 1.0% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 4% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 2% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 3% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 5% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 6% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 7% (cancelled)