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MANIFOLD
Is Chinas Economy Collapsing ?
12
Ṁ250Ṁ1.5k
resolved Dec 27
Resolved
YES

Made in China ?

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predictedNO

Btw, here's an easy way to resolve this: wait a few years, and then see if China's economy has, past tense, collapsed. I don't think it will have.

predictedYES

merged into first comment.

@SirCryptomind thorough!

a little concerning not to see any replies for clarification 😐

hard to argue with this source list though

@SirCryptomind The tricky part is that "is collapsing" could mean a wide range of things; my overall impression is more one of "slowly building problems" and less "dramatic and rapid implosion" and I have no idea which of those is supposed to be meant. Or whether we're looking more for "is collapsing" of "will have collapsed".

My inclination at the moment is towards N/A if we don't get good clarification from the creator.

predictedYES

@EvanDaniel I figured I would post proof regardless. I watch CNBC, Cheddar Finance, Bloomberg all day.
Bloomberg is worldwide, and I trade mostly during Asia hours (because cryptocurrency), and the China economy is not what it was or used to be in most measurements at less than pre-pandemic levels, which is bad.
The proof I posted is for the creator to determine, and I figured they would side with YES. And if the creator does not come back, than I already understood since it is a bit subjective and no clarifications that it would N/A.
(Since I don't take loans out, it was like putting mana off to the side to see if it grows or comes back lol)

There have been news stories like this every few years for the past few decades. China is, nevertheless, not in fact collapsing.

The EU economy is also not as dynamic as in the past. It is, nevertheless, not collapsing.

Example: CHINA CRASH 2012: Here's Why It's Finally Happening

I could find a bunch more, but news headlines are often just lies, even from otherwise reliable sources.

The plain meaning of 'collapse' is like 'fall apart', 'catastrophe', 'huge decline'. A slowing of growth isn't a collapse. It's debatable if 2008 is a 'collapse' - and china isn't close to that afaik. South Africa, Venezuela, etc are what I think of when I hear 'collapse'.

@jacksonpolack I can understand what you are saying, but I would say it will only continue to worsen.
Old but good read from June 2021

India actually passed China this year, 2-3 years ahead of past projections.
Source : Ten Most significant World Events In 2023 From The Council On Foreign Relations (December 8th 2023)

predictedNO

ok well we can see in a few years if it collapses or not

What are the resolution criteria for this? Please specify what has to happen for this to resolve YES and NO

McDonalds charged me $1.5 USD for delivering a meal to us even though we live 50m away from the restaurant.

The end is nigh.

Collapse by December 26th? Seems unlikely.

(That's the close date. If you meant by some other time, it would be helpful to specify it and update the close date accordingly.)

What indicators and what level of contraction qualifies as "collapsing"?

Over what timeframe?