Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s? | Manifold Markets

closes Dec 31, 2039

Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?

61%

chance

Some beginning to doubt the 2030s projection https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-chinas-economy-surpass-the-u-s-s-some-now-doubt-it-11662123945

Sep 4, 9:54pm: Probably I'll use The World Bank or something, if I consider reliable.

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

I assume this is at market exchange rates, not purchasing power parity?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Unlikely the way the CCP is focusing on control vs economic growth. They've already killed more than 1 100+ billion dollar industry if it doesn't fit with their goals.

created limit order for Ṁ500 YES at 55%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 59% to 61%

sold Ṁ2 NO at 59%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 57% to 59%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 54% to 57%

bought Ṁ5 NO from 56% to 54%

bought Ṁ2 NO at 56%

sold Ṁ1 NO at 56%

sold Ṁ2 NO from 55% to 56%

sold Ṁ14 NO from 51% to 55%

sold Ṁ18 YES from 56% to 51%

bought Ṁ25 YES from 49% to 56%

sold Ṁ20 YES from 55% to 49%

sold Ṁ4 YES from 56% to 55%

filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ40 NO at 56% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 NO from 63% to 59%

bought Ṁ20 YES from 58% to 63%

created limit order for Ṁ35 YES at 35%

bought Ṁ75 YES from 33% to 58%

sold Ṁ9 NO from 31% to 33%

bought Ṁ100 NO from 58% to 31%

sold Ṁ11 YES from 61% to 58%

bought Ṁ35 YES from 51% to 61%

filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ3 YES at 51% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ24 NO from 59% to 51%

filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ5 NO at 59% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ4 NO at 60% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ3 NO at 60% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ3 NO at 60% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ3 NO at 60% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ3 NO at 60% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ3 NO at 60% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ3 NO at 60% (cancelled)

filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ17 NO at 60% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ35 YES from 53% to 62%

created limit order for Ṁ4 NO at 53% (cancelled)

filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ15 NO at 53% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ55 YES from 36% to 54%

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 37% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 37% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ30 NO from 43% to 36%

bought Ṁ20 NO from 48% to 43%

created limit order for Ṁ14 NO at 92% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ40 NO at 88% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ39 NO at 85% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ4 NO at 80% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ21 NO at 90% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ5 NO at 91% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ5 YES at 1.0% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ17 NO at 78% (cancelled)