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MANIFOLD
Will China's Collapse before 2035? (GDP down 20%)
3
Ṁ100Ṁ62
2034
16%
chance

This market resolves YES if China's annual real GDP (in USD, not PPP) declines by at least 20% from any prior peak before January 1, 2035. Otherwise, it resolves NO on January 1, 2035.

Resolution strictly requires confirmation from at least two reliable sources, prioritizing data from the Rhodium Group and the World Bank. If these are unavailable, estimates from other credible organizations like the IMF or OECD will be used to fulfill the two-source minimum.

Official Chinese government statistics, such as the National Bureau of Statistics, are explicitly excluded due to reliability concerns.


I will trade this market, but will resolve objectively.

Market context
Economics
World
Geopolitics
China
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