Will China collapse before 2035? (GDP down 20%) | Manifold

Will China collapse before 2035? (GDP down 20%)

11

Ṁ100Ṁ875

2034

40%

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This market resolves YES if China's annual real GDP (in USD, not PPP) declines by at least 20% from any prior peak before January 1, 2035. Otherwise, it resolves NO.

Resolution strictly requires confirmation from at least two reliable sources, prioritizing data from the Rhodium Group and the World Bank. If these are unavailable, estimates from other credible organizations like the IMF or OECD will be used to fulfill the two-source minimum.

Official Chinese government statistics, such as the National Bureau of Statistics, are explicitly excluded due to reliability concerns.

I will trade this market, but will resolve objectively.

Update 2026-05-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Q4 2034 GDP report will certainly be published after January 1, 2035. The creator confirms this data will still be considered for resolution purposes despite being released after the market close date.

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BTW guys, the report of the last quarter in 2034 will certainly come out after 1 Jan 2035.

opened a Ṁ200 YES at 38% order

@Sss19971997 thx for the liquidity on the offer side bro <3

@MarcoMar oh so u were just calling others to bet against u

I don’t mind. U wanna do more? 38% is a good price for me

@Sss19971997 not right now mate. My fund are currently stuck in other markets. Will bet more once I have money

@MarcoMar Bayesian still hasn't given ma money back

@MarcoMar yo bro you wanna do more at 35%?

Lots of liquidity on the bid side

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People are also trading

Will Chinese economic growth drop below the upper middle-income GDP growth average in any year before 2031?

Will China's GDP surpass US GDP before 2035?

Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?

Will China collapse before 2030

Will China's GDP per capita surpass Japan's by the end of 2035?

Will the Chinese median wage go over half of chinese GDP per capita by 2033? Currently ~33%

Will China overtake the USA's economy by the end of 2030?

Will China's nominal GDP exceed the U.S.'s before 2040?

Will China have a recession by 2029?

Will China have a higher Nominal GDP than the US by 2030?

Related questions

Will Chinese economic growth drop below the upper middle-income GDP growth average in any year before 2031?

Will China's GDP surpass US GDP before 2035?

Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?

Will China collapse before 2030

Will China's GDP per capita surpass Japan's by the end of 2035?

Will the Chinese median wage go over half of chinese GDP per capita by 2033? Currently ~33%

Will China overtake the USA's economy by the end of 2030?

Will China's nominal GDP exceed the U.S.'s before 2040?

Will China have a recession by 2029?

Will China have a higher Nominal GDP than the US by 2030?