12
86
250
2031
12%
chance

Will China collapse before 2030?

In this question collapse is defined as a significant breakdown in the pre-established social order. Examples that would meet this definition include acute population collapse (an un-natural, rapid, and severe decrease) to the point that China ceases to posses a wide range of its current abilities (I.e. projection of power into the South China Sea or an severe decrease in economic power), the ousting and replacement of the CCP, widespread uprisings, or the end of the CCP’s ability to maintain order and control within the country.

Will be resolved Yes if it is clear that China in its current form has upturned its social order or experiences a clear and severe decline on or before December 31st 2029

Will be resolved No if China has not experienced any of the above on or before December 31st 2029.

Will resolve N/A if no data is available or if the situation becomes unclear.

Note: the definition of collapse is not airtight and leaves room for my own bias. For this reason if it is not clear as to what the situation is by this date, or it falls into some grey area: I will resolve N/A.

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