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True-False markets will be encoded as 1 if they resolve YES and 0 if they resolve NO. Dependent Multiple choice markets will be manually mapped to bit vectors; Independent markets will be mapped like True-False markets, with each option mapping to an input bit.
Inputs:
A: https://manifold.markets/jim/will-biden-finish-his-term
B: https://manifold.markets/duck/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres
C: https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/will-joe-biden-resign-in-his-first
D: https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-donald-trump-win-the-popular-v-nkvd5qs9lh
E: https://manifold.markets/Lion/will-jimmy-carter-be-alive-to-see-a
F: https://manifold.markets/Traveel/donald-trump-publicly-denies-the-of
G[1], G[2], G[3]: https://manifold.markets/BTE/who-will-be-time-magazines-2024-per
Kamala Harris -> [0, 0, 0]
Donald Trump -> [1, 1, 1]
Other -> [1, 0, 1] (i.e. G[1] = 1, G[2] = 0, G[3] = 1)
Joe Biden -> [1, 1, 0]
J. D. Vance -> [0, 1, 1]
Sam Altman -> [0, 1, 0]
Artificial Intelligence -> [0, 0, 1]
Any other option -> [1, 0, 0]
H: https://manifold.markets/Gen/will-there-be-an-ai-language-model
I: https://manifold.markets/PlasmaBallin/will-a-democrat-win-north-carolina-4e960bb4fc91
J: https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
K: https://manifold.markets/Nightsquared/will-someone-other-than-harris-or-t
L: https://manifold.markets/pluffASMR/swing-state-power-ranking-will-this
L[1]: Pennsylvania
L[2]: Wisconsin
L[3]: Michigan
L[4]: Georgia
L[5]: Arizona
L[6]: Nevada
L[7]: North Carolina
And here's the circuit:
Adder is a bit addition sub circuit, with the top output being the sum bit and the bottom output being the carry bit. Specifically,
Once all of the listed markets have resolved, I will input their resolutions into the circuit, and this market will resolve to the output (1 = yes, 0 = no). If non-trivial (i.e, the result of this market could change based on how those markets resolve) input markets are rightfully N/A'd, this market will be N/A'd. This market will resolve early if the result would not change regardless of how unresolved input markets would resolve. All of the listed markets should resolve by inauguration day.
I will not bet on this market.