This question will resolve YES if Donald Trump wins a plurality of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election.
Resolution will wait until there is an overwhelming consensus, based on a consensus of credible reporting such as the Associated Press.
@CryptoNeoLiberalist Trump is not good content though, that shit is so boring now. He just rambles and says retarded stuff. The shock factor wore off years ago and the moral disgust isn't fun anymore
@Tumbles To be completely fair, you are spot on with this. Like reruns but not such the good show. Maybe Seinfeld is on and it is like yes ok I can watch it again. But this is a shit show. Question is how will it dial up in new season and the new characters introduced. Will writing staff step up or just phone it in. Sad state of the affairs.
@CryptoNeoLiberalist Trump doesn't really promote constructive competitive conflict. His solution for the housing crisis is to eliminate completion for housing instead of creating new housing or fixing any of the other issues with housing. His plan for jobs is unclear but I imagine it's something along the same lines. His housing plan works for about a week, until all the REITs buy up all the available surplus and "stabilize" the market. He's just not smart enough to be a good leader or really to do anything other than appeal to the lowest common denominator. He is mind numbingly banal, once you realize this.
Assuming p(loses electoral college | wins popular vote) = 0 then there is an arbitrage with these two markets:
https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-the-2024-election
https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/if-trump-is-elected-president-in-20-76bc6d834051
@jade I dunno seems pretty safe to me, both polymarket and 538 have it at ~1%. You could bet YES on /RichardHanania/will-republicans-win-the-popular-vo-llm5g905qm--cash if you feel there is a chance for that.
I don't think I've seen any model that gives more than a 25% chance of a Harris pop vote win but Trump EC win. Either this market should be higher or Harris Presidency should be waaaaaay higher, or every model is wrong.
538 and Silver Bulletin don't agree on much but they agree on this.
Well obviously trump is much less popular than "generic republican" and this isn't a midterm so 2022 isn't as important as 2020 and 2016. But I think not enough people trust the models here.
@Joshua Had I known people followed the models that closely, I would have put the limit higher! another 25k at 30% if you are that interested
@BoltonBailey reallocating as we speak. Also thinking about whether I am going to look foolish or not. Better to do that earlier than later.