We should call this a provisional resolution, as votes are still being counted. Polymarket is at 99.8, though.

What source do we have that confirms he is guaranteed to have won the popular vote?

Dems got sweeped, rip

@Erskine I'm more surprised that Reps got less votes than 2020 and still won the popular vote.

@GoncaloM Trump will have more votes than in 2020 by the time California finishes.

I expected he would win with >50% certainty. Like 55%. I was very sure (>80%) he nonetheless would not win the popular vote. This outcome is easily vastly more surprising than him simply winning to me. God-damn.

Though I guess the most surprising outcome of all would have been if Harris won and Trump won the popular vote. If that had happened I'd probably have gone crazy

@CornCasting That would have been the end of the electoral college, so that would have been cool.

@NBAP Yea no doubt. Till then...

Despite this setback I continue to be bullish on the electoral college fucking over the American people and leading to bad outcomes for everyone.

The greatest underdog of all time

@Riley12 Wat da dawg doin?

@TheAllMemeingEye winning

California isn't even 50% done

@Erskine The NYTimes is predicting Trump +1.2.
The Needle: Live 2024 Presidential Election Forecast - The New York Times

@Erskine He's winning 40% of those votes, he's currently up by 5 Million votes, and his lead in the other states is building. He's almost certainly winning the popular vote at this point.

@Erskine this is just coping at this point, he's going to take the popular vote

Okay I'm sorry, but.. what?

Seriously, what the hell happened? The chance was like 13%, and then shot up to 85% over the course of a few minutes?? Look at the graph! How?

@TonyTCB Looks like it took a few hours to me...

@TonyTCB I'm pretty sure what happened was they started announcing the results...

@TonyTCB margins for Trump were much higher than expected in the earliest votes to be counted. This kind of thing is correlated across the nation (if there's a 5 point Trump swing in all the eastern states it isn't like there's going to be a 4 point Kamala swing in the western states).

🤔

@Jessef0226

👀

On this market I explained, why I changed my bets from Harris to Trump. It’s not something I want to do, but what I think may reflect the outcome of the election more accurately.

@PaintingPaul I was looking for your comment earlier to try and find the video you posted with Freddi to send to someone in the Manifold discord server. I bet you're quite happy that you changed your bets, at least.

@dieselbaby1337 whom are you reffering to by Freddi? I'm also on the Manifold discord server. If you want to contact me on discord, my name is paintingpaul

Regarding the bets: yeah, at least I have now some spare mana to trade with - currently I'm with ~850 Mana to trade with quite low xD

@PaintingPaul turns out your gut was right - congrats!

@MattP yeah, the analysis changed my perception and prediction