This question will resolve YES if Donald Trump wins a plurality of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election.
Resolution will wait until there is an overwhelming consensus, based on a consensus of credible reporting such as the Associated Press.
1,000
3.00I expected he would win with >50% certainty. Like 55%. I was very sure (>80%) he nonetheless would not win the popular vote. This outcome is easily vastly more surprising than him simply winning to me. God-damn.
Though I guess the most surprising outcome of all would have been if Harris won and Trump won the popular vote. If that had happened I'd probably have gone crazy
@NBAP Yea no doubt. Till then...
Despite this setback I continue to be bullish on the electoral college fucking over the American people and leading to bad outcomes for everyone.
@Erskine The NYTimes is predicting Trump +1.2.
The Needle: Live 2024 Presidential Election Forecast - The New York Times
@Erskine He's winning 40% of those votes, he's currently up by 5 Million votes, and his lead in the other states is building. He's almost certainly winning the popular vote at this point.
@TonyTCB margins for Trump were much higher than expected in the earliest votes to be counted. This kind of thing is correlated across the nation (if there's a 5 point Trump swing in all the eastern states it isn't like there's going to be a 4 point Kamala swing in the western states).
@PaintingPaul I was looking for your comment earlier to try and find the video you posted with Freddi to send to someone in the Manifold discord server. I bet you're quite happy that you changed your bets, at least.
@dieselbaby1337 whom are you reffering to by Freddi? I'm also on the Manifold discord server. If you want to contact me on discord, my name is paintingpaul
Regarding the bets: yeah, at least I have now some spare mana to trade with - currently I'm with ~850 Mana to trade with quite low xD