Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Plus
552
191k
Dec 2
23%
chance

This question will resolve YES if Donald Trump wins a plurality of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election.

Resolution will wait until there is an overwhelming consensus, based on a consensus of credible reporting such as the Associated Press.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:

Manifold and Polymarket vs. Metaculus and Nate Silver

p(president) - p(popular vote)
Mainfold: 51 - 26 = 25
Polymarket: 52 - 29 = 23
Metaculus: 50 - 38 = 12
Nate Silver: 46 - 32 = 14

bought Ṁ250 YES

Monifold leans left. There, I said it.

@Shai I think that's already been established through the poll's of manifold users political leanings, https://manifold.markets/soweliSon/where-on-the-political-spectrum-do

bought Ṁ50 YES

seems undervalued. If trump has a 50% chance of winning, it seems unlikely to me that half of those times he loses the popular vote

That actually sounds roughly accurate

When was the last time a republican won the popular vote though? 2000?

@JoeBoyle 2004, but before the 1952 election the republican candidate hadn't won the popular vote in the last 20 years either, but that didn't stop Eisenhower

So you’re saying that the base rate is low?

Which is what people betting NO are probably banking on

pretty much, yeah. If Trump has a ~50% chance of winning the electoral college, and the winner of the electoral college has won the popular vote 54/59 times, then the odds he wins the popular vote should be around 46%. I understand this model is very very far from perfect (which is why I'm not actually betting it up that high, and I wouldn't recommend any one else do so either), the further back in time you go the less representative it is of where we are now, but to only look at the past 4, 6, or 8 elections and that the republican lost the popular vote in 4, 5, or 7 of those respectively and conclude that he is therefore super likely to lose it this time too seems to me like clear cherry-picking of data and using a sample size too small to have any predictive value. I could be wrong though, I am assuming it is basically a coincidence that 2 of the past 6 elections had the winner lose the popular vote, if it happens a third time I will revisit that assumption.

nate silver said no

Nate silver gives a higher probability than this market

shit nvmd

I'm still not sure why Manifold is so much more bearish on Trump's odds of winning the popular vote than Silver (or polling).

Because 2016 broke people’s minds

LMAOOO. What are these odds? Kamala is winning a singular poll, and this is before she’s been around the country with coconut stories 💀

Relying on polls in 2024?

They were off like 5 points nationally in 2020.

Use the 2020 results (Dem +4.5) as a prior and that's why they should be favored to win the popular vote.

@ChinmayTheMathGuy agree, I do not expect Harris to underperform vs Biden 2020 by 4.5%+. Trump is not a stronger candidate than he was then. If anything he's weaker, particularly with 1/6 and Vance. Whether Harris is as strong or worse than Biden 2020 remains to be seen, but I don't expect she'll be significantly worse. If anything I think (hope) she'll attract more people to show up and vote for her than another old white guy (that could mean Biden 2020 or Trump 2024) .

Polling errors are usually directionally hard to predict. Trump has been significantly underestimated both previous polling cycles, so if anything you'd expect him to outperform his polling average.

The democrats have won the popular vote in every presidential election for the past thirty years except for one. That's why these odds are where they are - Kamala would have to do worse than Clinton 2016, and that's pretty much impossible

Huh??? How is it impossible if every poll indicates her doing worse than Clinton???

bought Ṁ150 YES

They underestimated Trump in 2016 and 2020…

Yes and he still lost the popular vote both times, with the margin growing for 2.1 percentage points in 2016 to 4.5 in 2020. Maybe he’ll reverse that entirely in 2024. Bet accordingly. I don’t think he will.

Why wouldn’t he reverse it when the polls are saying he will? The polls suggested he would lose in 2016 and 2020, they indicate he won’t this time… The polls overestimated democrats in the PV by 2 points in 2016 and 4 in 2020, if the trend continues Trump wins the PV by like 4 points…

It's July. Polls can move a whole lot from July to November. So I suppose those voting "no" here have a certain expectation about what that movement will be. Polls are still adjusting to Harris instead Biden, which impacts whom people favor as well as whether they're likely to show up and vote. Dems have 3 months to remind people who Trump really is, and what he did and didn't do - particularly from 2020 through 1/6. Somehow people seem to have forgotten how much of an abject clown he really is. The focus on Biden's very real and apparent issues was a distraction - almost absolutely - from that. No longer.

You've got 2 strong priors - polls skewed against Trump vs actuals in 2016 and 2020, coupled with recent polls that you think will hold enough over the next few months to indicate that Trump will win the popular vote. We have 2 strong priors - actual popular vote in 2016 and 2020, coupled with momentum from Harris replacing Biden that we think will continue. I've bet based on which I think is more significant and what I expect to see unfold in the next few months. Who really knows? Time will tell.