Who buys YES

@beaver1 Funniest outcome is the most likely. Kamala WILL be the first woman president (for two weeks)

He wants to give Kamala a chance to be president because she'll never get it again.

@Riley12 Show us the mana

@VandelayIndustries in at 1% w sweepcash

@FlipPidot What happened to your old comments? I wanted to ask for an update on your thinking!

@DavidFWatson Are my old comments gone?

My thinking is that the time value is dwindling fast here!

That said, I've been selling a lot lately, not because I think it's too highly priced, but to free up Mana to boost other markets.

@FlipPidot 😆 I'm selling my NO for the same reason

If Biden is hospitalised or similar and without resigning is instead removed as unfit/incapable does this resolve no not resigned?

This looks different from finish first term market so another reason it isn't a perfect arbitrage.

Unfortunately not enough scope to sell at 6% here and 94% there.

Just to be clear, him dying doesn't resolve YES?

@Kraalnaxx Nope.

@Predictor Sorry, does that mean him dying would resolve YES?

@Kraalnaxx That is an interesting interpretation.

@Predictor I'm just trying to clarify what you meant, because I realized I might have misunderstood before lol. Yes or no, Joe Biden dying would resolve this market to YES.

@Kraalnaxx A dead president can hardly resign, can he?

@Kraalnaxx No, yeah, for sure I get it. I will get the question updated to reflect resolution.

Lot of free money on the table with this question. Free arb here, and I really don’t think Biden resigns to help Kamala since she’s trying to run as an outsider.

Why would Biden resign? He's already a lame duck. What's the point of making Kamala an incumbent? One of the main GOP strategies is to position Kamala as an incumbent, why would the dems play right into that line?

@JS_81 I think they’ll keep him in the position regardless but the most likely reason he would resign would be the same reason he dropped out: aging related health problems and decline. It need not be a grand political strategy if he has some sort of major incident which captures the national conversation for a while, particularly post-election.

I agree it's unlikely to happen before November 5th unless Biden has a health crisis. But afterward, if Harris loses, Biden might be persuaded to let her have a month as the lame-duck president for the sake of historical firsts. And if she wins, Biden might decide he's exhausted by the job anyway.

Kamala's polls will continue to decline with mounting pressure on her to speak to the press and release policies, so the dems in early october will have biden resign so that the public will be distracted and she will be able to give an excuse of "acclimating to the job"

This seems very unlikely

didn't realize we were in the "using autocomplete to make political predictions" part of the cycle.

Six words in and you can already completely discard this comment. "Polls will continue to decline"? So far, Kamala's polling has done nothing but increase. You're not living in reality.

@GregMister Kamala's polling has been mostly increasing since she jumped in the race. Now she's up to what, D+3.5 or something? All this does is convince me that YES traders are completely out of touch with reality and I shouldn't take the 12% yes probability seriously as an update.

@JS_81 I'm talking about a future trend, not a current one

@GregMister then you misused the phrase "continue to"

@LukasTilmann you must have missed the word "will"

@GregMister What? "Will" implies that decreases will happen in the future, "continue to" implies that they have already been happening in the past. You made two statements, one about the past and present, and one about the future. The one about the future I didn't dispute because I can't see into the future, but the one about the past and present I did dispute, because I can look at a chart.

@LukasTilmann will modifies the phrase "continue to decrease" as in in the future, there will be a point that her polls will continue to decrease. Does that explanation make you less confused and angry?

@GregMister No. I was never angry and I was never confused. I just continue to think that you are not in full command of the English language. If you think that there will be some point in the future where her polls decrease, there's no point in using the word continue here, and using the word "will" does not imply that the start of the polling decrease must be in the future as well, as something happening in the present can continue in the future. Therefore, there's one clear interpretation of the phrase "will continue to" - it's happening now and it will continue to happen.

@LukasTilmann >non-native english speaker

@GregMister So this week in early October? Maybe a short fuse market would be fun on this prediction.

@LiamZ Just created a somewhat similar market, although I didn't limit it to this week: https://manifold.markets/MugaSofer/will-joe-biden-resign-as-an-october