Who will be Time Magazine's 2024 Person of the Year?
191
2.9K
14K
2025
27%
Joe Biden
16%
Other
13%
Donald Trump
6%
Sam Altman
5%
Xi Jinping
4%
Kamala Harris
3%
Taylor Swift
3%
Artificial Intelligence
2%
Nikki Haley
1.7%
Trump Prosecutors
1.6%
Kristi Noem
1.5%
Gavin Newsom
1.3%
Narendra Modi
1.3%
Elon Musk
1.3%
Elise Stefanik

Resolution criteria same as @Joshua market for 2023.

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Related questions

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NoyaV avatar
Noya

Let's see if Manifold can predict next year's!

Slothrop avatar
Nickbought Ṁ100 of
Sundar Pichai
YES

Don’t count out Pichai. The product that generates over 90% of his company’s revenue is being eaten inside out by garbage synthetic content, rendering the world’s most useful internet signpost increasingly useless.

He needs to:

(a) Pivot Google strategy to address the challenges posed by hallucinated and/or outright propagandistic AI content currently overwhelming SEO if his company (and let’s not forget democratic and social norms) plans to survive this new era.

(b) Leverage the cash and talent on hand to develop an alternative to OpenAI that supplements Search’s operational and revenue goals rather than contravenes them.

If he pulls these things off with fanfare (and during an election year no less) he’ll look like political and cultural darling - and a harbinger for a better tech tomorrow. POTY material right there.

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚sold Ṁ0 of
Kristi Noem
YES

Just noticed this, drawing attention to it for anyone who didn't:

NicoDelon avatar
Nico

@Joshua the big reveal is you're bullish on Noem

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚

@NicoDelon she's top of the VP market!

NicoDelon avatar
Nico

@Joshua is that so? interesting.

KnowNothing avatar
KnowNothingbought Ṁ10 of
Nikki Haley
YES

@Joshua looks like there's also a duplicate for Tim Scott. Will the ones added second be marked N/A or would they both resolve to 50/50 if chosen

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚

@KnowNothing This one's not my market hahaha. But if I were running it, yeah I think they'd have to go 50/50 because people have already traded on them. IMO Brian should edit that in to the options with a little tag like [Resolves equally with duplicate option]

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleysold Ṁ0 of
The Spirit of 🇹🇼
YES

@Joshua I think that adds way too much complexity moving forward, just to save a fews mana for the people who probably shouldn't have been adding and betting on duplicate answers in the first place.

Mira avatar
Mira 🦚

@MichaelWheatley One of the options has 59 traders, the other 14. Edit the smaller one to "INVALID ANSWER". Or maybe the earlier one should stay.

You can't resolve 50% because then you're changing the leverage on people's shares for no good reason. Imagine this market gets tweeted out and you have to explain to people: "Look a 10% here is actually means a 20% probability because [...]".

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚sold Ṁ41 of
Kristi Noem
YES

@MichaelWheatley Up to BTE ultimately, the whole format is inherently chaotic. I've sold my shares in the less popular one though. And will once again shill for my own /Joshua/who-will-be-the-time-person-of-the-6ef43addcc5b

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleybought Ṁ2 of
Trump Prosecutors
YES

@Joshua Yeah, an official nomination process is probably best for this kind of market in the future.

Though to be honest, some of the fun this year was navigating the shitshow of the conceptual landscape: "Do I bet on ChatGPT or Atificial Intelligence?" "Taylor Swift or Year of the Woman?"

KnowNothing avatar
KnowNothingbought Ṁ10 of
Kristi Noem
YES

@Mira i'm biased here but i think if one of them stays it should always be the original as a general rule. also all the market's duplicates were added by the same person who was spamming entries and i don't think it makes sense to reward that.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

@Joshua Shit this market is blasted. I don’t want to cancel it but how else do we clean it up?

NicoDelon avatar
Nicobought Ṁ0 of
Taylor Swift
NO

@BTE I would N/A duplicates (keeping the original ones) and absurd answers.

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚

@BTE Yeah I wouldn't cancel the whole market, people like chaos!

They just need to be aware of the risks. You can edit individual options as the creator, so imo you should def do that.

Up to you if you cancel one or say they both count though. KnowNothing is right that the one with fewer traders was the older one, but the newer one from the troll has like way more traders. That's a tough one.

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚sold Ṁ56 of
Kristi Noem
YES

@Joshua I've sold my position on both now, personally just gonna hope Haley is VP instead haha.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

@NicoDelon It’s only letting me N/A everything of nothing.

StevenK avatar
Steven

@Joshua 19% Noem as nominee means <9% Noem as vice president according to "which party will win" markets, which means <3% Noem co-selected as person of the year according to your other market, and half of that would go to the president, leaving maybe 1-1.5% total across the Noem options.

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚

@BTE Yeah you can't actually N/A a partiular option, only the whole thing. But you can edit options to say [Invalid Option] with the new edit button.

NicoDelon avatar
Nicobought Ṁ1 of
Kristi Noem
YES

@Joshua oh because it's set to resolve to only one answer? or because you can only pick answers when you resolve rather than resolve answers separately?

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚

@NicoDelon An Unlinked market where any option can resolve yes or no individually can have options resolve N/A individually, yeah.

@StevenK Good math! Yeah I had her too high between them anyways, although I am bullish on the President and Vice-President elect being nominated.

ItsMe avatar
It's Mebought Ṁ500 of
Joe Biden
YES

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚bought Ṁ10 of
Narendra Modi
YES

@ItsMe also important:

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚

Arb:

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚bought Ṁ10 of
Xi Jinping
YES

Note that you have to be careful with arb, because in my market the Biden option covers the entire democratic ticket whether it's Biden or not.

I'm trying to minimize 50% split possibilities as much as I can by having submissions closed and avoiding overlap where possible.