Surely this is arb with her election odds? If she wins there is absolutely no way she won't be POTY right, so she's under by about 10 percentage points here on current trading

Any chance we can add some leading dem VP candidates to the mix?

Lol Vance was at 1.2% when you left this comment but I bought him up to 8. I think we could just wait to find out who the Dem VP is personally.

there's also this market:
/Joshua/who-will-be-the-time-person-of-the-6ef43addcc5b

dang, I forgot to keep up my limit order for him...

.

?

A bit of a mistake.

got it - I saw your other tag and having a look ✨

Will JD Vance be added to this?

This seems inconsistent with this one under any plausible forecast of likely president-elects?

https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-the-time-person-of-t?r=WmFjaGFyeUZyZWl0YXNHcm9mZg

And it seems like the president-elect has always been a POTY since 2000, so if anything I wonder if that market is too low: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year

FAQ:

Why are so many answers getting disqualified? What were they?

They were because a troll (now banned) submitted answers and then edited them to completely different answers, including many duplicates. As a result, those answers had to be disqualified, which means they are guaranteed to resolve NO. (This market type doesn't allow N/A-ing specific answers unfortunately.)

I added this as a pinned comment to replace the previous 3 pinned comments that were much more confusing for people to understand.

Turns out Manifold has a bug where the unpin button sometimes doesn't work. Guess we have 4 pinned comments now.

Can the disqualified options at least be renamed, so we can get additional likely candidates like Doug Burgum included?

@TheAllMemeingEye That would be unfair to people who bet NO on the disqualified options.

Yeah disqualified options should not be edited, but new options can still be added.

I have a market on who will be on the shortlist, if you have ideas for people to add here I suggest putting them in there as a start:

Chef Jose Andres

Daniel Kahneman

Daniel Kahneman

Younkin would be a great VP choice for Trump because he is an outgoing governor with very deep pockets who could pick up the slack funding the campaign. He might even be willing to cover Trump's legal bills for a shot at being his heir apparent. We should assume the VP slot is for sale and rule out anyone who isn't a billionaire. This is basically what RFK Jr just did with Nicole Shanahan.