Let's see if Manifold can predict next year's!

Don’t count out Pichai. The product that generates over 90% of his company’s revenue is being eaten inside out by garbage synthetic content, rendering the world’s most useful internet signpost increasingly useless.

He needs to:

(a) Pivot Google strategy to address the challenges posed by hallucinated and/or outright propagandistic AI content currently overwhelming SEO if his company (and let’s not forget democratic and social norms) plans to survive this new era.

(b) Leverage the cash and talent on hand to develop an alternative to OpenAI that supplements Search’s operational and revenue goals rather than contravenes them.

If he pulls these things off with fanfare (and during an election year no less) he’ll look like political and cultural darling - and a harbinger for a better tech tomorrow. POTY material right there.

Just noticed this, drawing attention to it for anyone who didn't:

@Joshua the big reveal is you're bullish on Noem

@NicoDelon she's top of the VP market!

@Joshua is that so? interesting.

@Joshua looks like there's also a duplicate for Tim Scott. Will the ones added second be marked N/A or would they both resolve to 50/50 if chosen

@KnowNothing This one's not my market hahaha. But if I were running it, yeah I think they'd have to go 50/50 because people have already traded on them. IMO Brian should edit that in to the options with a little tag like [Resolves equally with duplicate option]

@Joshua I think that adds way too much complexity moving forward, just to save a fews mana for the people who probably shouldn't have been adding and betting on duplicate answers in the first place.

@MichaelWheatley One of the options has 59 traders, the other 14. Edit the smaller one to "INVALID ANSWER". Or maybe the earlier one should stay.

You can't resolve 50% because then you're changing the leverage on people's shares for no good reason. Imagine this market gets tweeted out and you have to explain to people: "Look a 10% here is actually means a 20% probability because [...]".

@MichaelWheatley Up to BTE ultimately, the whole format is inherently chaotic. I've sold my shares in the less popular one though. And will once again shill for my own /Joshua/who-will-be-the-time-person-of-the-6ef43addcc5b

@Joshua Yeah, an official nomination process is probably best for this kind of market in the future.

Though to be honest, some of the fun this year was navigating the shitshow of the conceptual landscape: "Do I bet on ChatGPT or Atificial Intelligence?" "Taylor Swift or Year of the Woman?"

@Mira i'm biased here but i think if one of them stays it should always be the original as a general rule. also all the market's duplicates were added by the same person who was spamming entries and i don't think it makes sense to reward that.

@Joshua Shit this market is blasted. I don’t want to cancel it but how else do we clean it up?

@BTE I would N/A duplicates (keeping the original ones) and absurd answers.

@BTE Yeah I wouldn't cancel the whole market, people like chaos!

They just need to be aware of the risks. You can edit individual options as the creator, so imo you should def do that.

Up to you if you cancel one or say they both count though. KnowNothing is right that the one with fewer traders was the older one, but the newer one from the troll has like way more traders. That's a tough one.

@Joshua I've sold my position on both now, personally just gonna hope Haley is VP instead haha.

@NicoDelon It’s only letting me N/A everything of nothing.

@Joshua 19% Noem as nominee means <9% Noem as vice president according to "which party will win" markets, which means <3% Noem co-selected as person of the year according to your other market, and half of that would go to the president, leaving maybe 1-1.5% total across the Noem options.

@BTE Yeah you can't actually N/A a partiular option, only the whole thing. But you can edit options to say [Invalid Option] with the new edit button.

@Joshua oh because it's set to resolve to only one answer? or because you can only pick answers when you resolve rather than resolve answers separately?

@NicoDelon An Unlinked market where any option can resolve yes or no individually can have options resolve N/A individually, yeah.

@StevenK Good math! Yeah I had her too high between them anyways, although I am bullish on the President and Vice-President elect being nominated.

@ItsMe also important:

Arb:

Note that you have to be careful with arb, because in my market the Biden option covers the entire democratic ticket whether it's Biden or not.

I'm trying to minimize 50% split possibilities as much as I can by having submissions closed and avoiding overlap where possible.