Will there be any swings of the predicted winner of the US presidential election in '24 by 10% or more within a single day?
Not restricted to any single betting market; this is referring to a nationally recognized swing between whoever the two leading candidates are at that time.
Edit: I intended "between" to be the relative spread, but the question was raised about the case where a leading candidate falls by 10% but the opposing candidate doesn't get that bump. The question will resolve yes for any leading candidate of either party crashing by 10%+ within a 24 hour period based on a reasonable range of observable metrics. Obviously most polls don't update that fast, but if betting markets have that big of a swing and then polls update to match, that'll be a 'yes'.
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3.00@mattyb @NickAllen following up on this, seems like biden's dropping out trivially satisfies this and it can resolve YES?\
The question will resolve yes for any leading candidate of either party crashing by 10%+ within a 24 hour period based on a reasonable range of observable metrics.
Biden crashed by much more than 10% on the day he dropped out, across all betting sites (or any metric you pick). (he also crashed by 10% on other days, but the drop out day is clear)
@Ziddletwix @mattyb @NickAllen I agree. Also, Nick himself wrote below:
"Events that could trigger it would be a frontrunner dropping out, or an event that makes their fitness for office a serious concern happening suddenly, I'm guessing.
...
So anyone who thinks Biden won't run, or Trump will get dropped if he gets convicted, this is your market collecting all those potential types of events together."
That seems to be exactly what happened.
@Ziddletwix @mods pinged Nick a few times over the past week, seems to be inactive. Can read the thread above. It seems pretty clear cut that Biden dropping out was exactly the sort of thing this market was meant to refer to.
@DavidPennock I think if it was 51% Biden 49% trump and it swung to 41% Biden 49% trump 10% random 3rd contender, that would be almost so unlikely (and seemingly inconsequential to an outcome) that it isn’t worth considering
I can’t even imagine a scenario where it happens. How could a 3rd or 4th candidate reasonably take a chunk that big that they actually have a >10% chance of winning the election? 3rd party Trump campaign could theoretically take desantis from 51% to 41% and himself to 10%, while Biden stays 49%, but in that situation I would expect the introduction of a competitive third party would actually cause the other party (Biden in this example) to be essentially guaranteed a win, which would mean his probability skyrockets and the conditions are met regardless.
If you can think of a scenario, let me know! I’m genuinely racking my brain trying to think of one.. maybe a 3rd party equal dem/rep but also somehow viable??
@Gen Good questions. I am thinking that it could happen during the primary season. If Trump drops out during the primaries, Trump would fall more than 10% and DeSantis could rise by more than 10%, with Biden roughly staying the same.
Even if it's a small-probability and hard-to-envision scenario, it's good to define the outcome crisply. It sounds like you intend to resolve the market as YES as long as the frontrunner goes up or down by 10% in one day, regardless of what happens with the other candidates. Is that accurate? Thanks.
@DavidPennock Good question, see updated resolution description. The 10% doesn't need to flow from one candidate to another party, or any one other candidate; a leading crashing 10% and having everyone else's odds updating to reflect in aggregate will resolve it. Thanks for the clarifying question!
@ShadowyZephyr from the description:
"Not restricted to any single betting market; this is referring to a nationally recognized swing between whoever the two leading candidates are at that time."
This will not resolve "yes" from any single market or poll, or single source, but from an actual shift of that magnitude pretty much across the board.
@DavidPennock given the percent of people who vote early, it'd have to be a big event to shift 10% of voters. Probably something like 20-30% of election day voters, right? Having a hard time imagining what that could be short of a candidate dying, but if that sort of if thing happens on election day this'll resolve yes.
@NickAllen Ok, thanks for clarifying. That makes sense. But now I have another question. Do you mean a 10% shift in the prediction/betting market probability (which is what I thought you meant), or do you mean a 10% shift in the vote share / polls? I agree the latter would be extremely unlikely to happen. However, the former is very likely to happen. On election day, if the winner becomes clear, one of the candidate's betting market probabilities will go to close to 100%.
@DavidPennock that won't resolve it, it doesn't meet the spirit of the question as an unexpected event that shifts probability of the winner in a double-digit way. It'll resolve with the spirit of the question. Once we're in early voting season the magnitude necessary will grow to reflect the decreasing number of voters who haven't already committed.
If it's remotely contentious I'll consult the voting community before resolving, but the bias will be towards the spirit of the question and away from technical resolutions.