Will there be a disruption of the 2024 US Elections ?
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Article in the Politico for Unpredictable by Entirely Plausible 2024 events.

A disrupted U.S. election

BY IAN BREMMER

Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media.

We all know the 2024 U.S. presidential election is going to be enormously divisive and dysfunctional, perceived by many if not most (on the losing side) to be illegitimate. But what if it isn’t just perception? What if the world’s most powerful country can’t hold a free and fair election?

Biden supporters are worried about the end of democracy. Trump supporters are worried Democrats want to throw the former president in jail. And there are plenty of adversaries (I’m looking at you, Russia, Iran and North Korea) that would love nothing more than to see more chaos from the Americans.

That means that efforts to subvert the election could be successful and could come from a variety of actors — from cyberattacks, deep fakes and disinformation, physical attacks on the election process and oversight, and/or mass unrest, violent intervention and even terrorism to disrupt voting on Nov. 5. There’s no more geopolitically significant target than the upcoming U.S. elections, which are vulnerable due to limited experience and resources focused on election security.

I wasn’t worried about a coup back on Jan. 6, and I don’t see any way to overturn this coming year’s election either. But disrupting the 2024 U.S. election strikes me as plausible and deeply concerning.

Will the US Elections in 2024 face disruptions? This is a bit subjective and I will use all evidence gathered from reputable new organizations to make this call. Disruptions can be prior to the actual elections or post elections until the inauguration in Jan 2025.

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Does it count as a disruption if the winner loses and the loser wins, a la 2000 and 2016? Or if the majority of voters does not support the winner, which happens basically every time?

@BrunoParga I think it is the general consensus that both the 2000 and 2016 elections were conducted successfully. While there were a few hiccups, I don't think anyone thinks those elections were in anyway invalid or disrupted. The US electoral system does not give the presidency to the winner of the popular vote but the electoral college.

@Orca or to the supreme court case...

What would you count as a disruption? January 6 probably, anything else from the past few decades?

@NathanScott Jan 6 wouldn't actually count per Ian Bremmer’s writing, it happened after the election.

"That means that efforts to subvert the election could be successful and could come from a variety of actors — from cyberattacks, deep fakes and disinformation, physical attacks on the election process and oversight, and/or mass unrest, violent intervention and even terrorism to disrupt voting on Nov. 5"

So successful attacks by an adversary that results in these things? I agree it's pretty vague, maybe this market is better as an an opinion market - "will Ian Bremmer claim that there was a disruption to the 2024 elections".

@KennethAnderson The bold part says it can be post election until the inauguration

@NathanScott @KennethAnderson -- Thanks for the feedback. It could probably be an opinion market, but I will leave it like this for now. My opinion is Jan 6 2020 is will not count as a disruption because the final results of the elections were honored. But if Jan 6th had succeeded and/or the fake electoral slate was accepted and the incorrect person is made the President, then that still counts as a disruption, IMO, as the election has been disrupted. I guess what does post election mean?? -- is it Election Day -- OR -- Certification by Congress (as that really is the end of election) OR Inauguration when the election results take effect -- what is something disrupts there?

Would be good to hear our thoughts

@Orca I think that clarification is helpful, thanks.

@Orca So it has to be a successful disruption?

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