Article in the Politico for Unpredictable by Entirely Plausible 2024 events.

A disrupted U.S. election

BY IAN BREMMER

Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media.

We all know the 2024 U.S. presidential election is going to be enormously divisive and dysfunctional, perceived by many if not most (on the losing side) to be illegitimate. But what if it isn’t just perception? What if the world’s most powerful country can’t hold a free and fair election?

Biden supporters are worried about the end of democracy. Trump supporters are worried Democrats want to throw the former president in jail. And there are plenty of adversaries (I’m looking at you, Russia, Iran and North Korea) that would love nothing more than to see more chaos from the Americans.

That means that efforts to subvert the election could be successful and could come from a variety of actors — from cyberattacks, deep fakes and disinformation, physical attacks on the election process and oversight, and/or mass unrest, violent intervention and even terrorism to disrupt voting on Nov. 5. There’s no more geopolitically significant target than the upcoming U.S. elections, which are vulnerable due to limited experience and resources focused on election security.

I wasn’t worried about a coup back on Jan. 6, and I don’t see any way to overturn this coming year’s election either. But disrupting the 2024 U.S. election strikes me as plausible and deeply concerning.

Will the US Elections in 2024 face disruptions? This is a bit subjective and I will use all evidence gathered from reputable new organizations to make this call. Disruptions can be prior to the actual elections or post elections until the inauguration in Jan 2025.