If there is at least a 5 percentage point shift over a 48 hour period in the Manifold party market between Aug 7 and November 1, I will resolve to the cause of the movement based on my personal judgment. I will consider your comments if there is ambiguity.

https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/which-party-will-win-the-2024-us-pr-f4158bf9278a

Background:

• I counted 3 such movements in 2024 corresponding to the Biden-Trump debate on 6/27, assassination attempt on 7/13, and Biden dropping out 7/21. All in the span of ONE month after a relatively calm period.

• I may loosely use a 48 hour window to allow for smoothing to account for noisy price change.

• If I cannot identify an obvious reason, I will resolve to Other. This includes poll related movement, like if Harris unexpectedly takes the lead in Florida & Texas polling.

• If no such movement takes place between now and 11/1, I will resolve as N/A and return the money. So, betting on Other is not necessary if you don't think one will happen.

• This market closes a few days before the election day.