If there is at least a 5 percentage point shift over a 48 hour period in the Manifold party market between Aug 7 and November 1, I will resolve to the cause of the movement based on my personal judgment. I will consider your comments if there is ambiguity.
https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/which-party-will-win-the-2024-us-pr-f4158bf9278a
Background:
I counted 3 such movements in 2024 corresponding to the Biden-Trump debate on 6/27, assassination attempt on 7/13, and Biden dropping out 7/21. All in the span of ONE month after a relatively calm period.
I may loosely use a 48 hour window to allow for smoothing to account for noisy price change.
If I cannot identify an obvious reason, I will resolve to Other. This includes poll related movement, like if Harris unexpectedly takes the lead in Florida & Texas polling.
If no such movement takes place between now and 11/1, I will resolve as N/A and return the money. So, betting on Other is not necessary if you don't think one will happen.
This market closes a few days before the election day.
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@traders at the moment this will not resolve to "Debate" because the price change is 3% compared to just before debate, however if the Dem price reaches 55% for some time today 9/12 (48 hour period after debate), I will resolve to it
Just added a clarification:
If I cannot identify an obvious reason, I will resolve to Other. This includes poll related movement, like if Harris unexpectedly takes the lead in Florida & Texas polling.
I would consider DNC bounce as "Other". But this is prediction market and the bounce should normally be priced in, at least not lead to a big shift in 48 hours imo