Will there be any "10%+ in 24 hrs" event before the US presidential election in 2024?
27
1kṀ3268
resolved Nov 3
Resolved
YES

Will there be any swings of the predicted winner of the US presidential election in '24 by 10% or more within a single day?

Not restricted to any single betting market; this is referring to a nationally recognized swing between whoever the two leading candidates are at that time.

Edit: I intended "between" to be the relative spread, but the question was raised about the case where a leading candidate falls by 10% but the opposing candidate doesn't get that bump. The question will resolve yes for any leading candidate of either party crashing by 10%+ within a 24 hour period based on a reasonable range of observable metrics. Obviously most polls don't update that fast, but if betting markets have that big of a swing and then polls update to match, that'll be a 'yes'.

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