Will the EA forum support users estimating values in posts and then supplying some kind of median, by 2030? | Manifold

Will the EA forum support users estimating values in posts and then supplying some kind of median, by 2030?

Ancient Markets Effective Altruism

Basic

12

Ṁ321

2029

53%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Get Ṁ600 play money

Sort by:

Hm, this is not a bad idea

predicts YES

What would good and bad outcomes look like here?

Related questions

Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?

Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?

Will there be any new EA billionaires by 2027?

Across, 2025 a majority of EA funding rounds will have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met.

Will EA renounce utilitarianism as a guiding principle by the end of 2030?

The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030.

If the EA forum wiki changes to allow much more informative summaries (rather than very short introductions) before 2023, will wiki pages get 5x as many views compared to the rest of the forum as they currently do by 2024?

How much will AI advances impact EA research effectiveness, by 2030?

Will the Musk Foundation fund a major EA project by 2031?

Across, 2025 will a majority of EA funding rounds have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met?

Related questions

Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?

The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030.

Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?

If the EA forum wiki changes to allow much more informative summaries (rather than very short introductions) before 2023, will wiki pages get 5x as many views compared to the rest of the forum as they currently do by 2024?

Will there be any new EA billionaires by 2027?

How much will AI advances impact EA research effectiveness, by 2030?

Across, 2025 a majority of EA funding rounds will have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met.

Will the Musk Foundation fund a major EA project by 2031?

Will EA renounce utilitarianism as a guiding principle by the end of 2030?

Across, 2025 will a majority of EA funding rounds have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met?