Across, 2025 a majority of EA funding rounds will have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met.
16
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2026
23%
chance

The aim of this question is to predict whether things like the clearer thinking regranting tournament will become normal. ie using forecasting to aid grantmaking.

Please help me improve the resolution criteria:

For the year 2025, more than half of funding rounds giving away more than 100k in total will have forecasting questions or prediction markets on whether grants will be given or if grant goals will be met.

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Why >100k? More visible projects, or something else?

I would strongly encourage anyone to write questions predicting the future of EA. If manafold $ are the problem, comment here and I'll give you $100