Across, 2025 a majority of EA funding rounds will have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met.
Plus
16
Ṁ7392026
23%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The aim of this question is to predict whether things like the clearer thinking regranting tournament will become normal. ie using forecasting to aid grantmaking.
Please help me improve the resolution criteria:
For the year 2025, more than half of funding rounds giving away more than 100k in total will have forecasting questions or prediction markets on whether grants will be given or if grant goals will be met.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Across, 2025 will a majority of EA funding rounds have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met?
20% chance
Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?
31% chance
Will people care about prediction markets by 2025?
35% chance
Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?
Which forecasting projects/organizations will be recommended a grant from Open Philanthropy in 2024?
Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?
66% chance
How much funding will EA get in 2023?
975
Which three cause areas will get the most EA funding before 2030?
Will approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
53% chance
Will prediction markets be used to allocate UKRI funding before 2040?
33% chance