The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030. | Manifold

The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030.

AI Safety•AI Alignment•Effective Altruism•AI risk

22

175

Ṁ722

Ṁ450

2029

42%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Something we'd pay $10 million to avert.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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What exactly is meant by "progressive" in contrast to rationalist?

Who's "we"?

This needs much clearer resolution criteria. You can make the argument this has already happened.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Can you name any examples of a split you'd pay 10 million to avert?

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There will be significant bad blood within EA over disagreements about feminism before 2025

Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in Q4 2025?

Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in 2030?

Will the EA forum support users estimating values in posts and then supplying some kind of median, by 2030?

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?

EA will have a noticeably less sexually libertine culture in 2025 for the 90th percentile EA, than before 2023, looking back.

Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?

Will there be another EA reputational crisis before 2028?

How much will AI advances impact EA research effectiveness, by 2030?

AI Safety questions

Will AntiBombGPT be broken within a week?

Can integrating AI into genomics and personalized medicine effectively double human lifespan within next 50 yrs?

AI Alignment questions

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

In a year, will we think that Sam Altman leaving OpenAI reduced AI risk?

Effective Altruism questions

Do college admissions officers have an overall negative impression of EA?

[short-fuse 💣] Will my co-worker trap a pigeon before May?

AI risk questions

Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024)

Will the release of Gemini Ultra trigger a surge of public panic and government concern around AI?

Related questions

There will be significant bad blood within EA over disagreements about feminism before 2025

Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?

Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in Q4 2025?

EA will have a noticeably less sexually libertine culture in 2025 for the 90th percentile EA, than before 2023, looking back.

Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in 2030?

Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?

Will the EA forum support users estimating values in posts and then supplying some kind of median, by 2030?

Will there be another EA reputational crisis before 2028?

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

How much will AI advances impact EA research effectiveness, by 2030?