The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030.
28
1kṀ1559
2029
50%
chance

Something we'd pay $10 million to avert.

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"Progressive" and "rationalist" aren't opposed. You might be thinking of —

  • progressive vs. libertarian

  • progressive vs. reactionary

  • progressives & libertarians vs. reactionaries & neofascists

  • rationalist vs. post-rationalist

  • rationalist vs. mysterian

  • something else

What exactly is meant by "progressive" in contrast to rationalist?

Who's "we"?

This needs much clearer resolution criteria. You can make the argument this has already happened.

Can you name any examples of a split you'd pay 10 million to avert?

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If no other big events happen and there is a big inter-community listening exercise, will EA split into 2 parties before 2025?
12% chance
Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in 2030?
33% chance
EA will have a noticeably less sexually libertine culture in 2025 for the 90th percentile EA, than before 2023, looking back.
59% chance
Will there be an EA organisation that donates >$10M/yr using a democratized mechanism before 2025?
14% chance
Will the EA Forum or LessWrong start using EigenKarma by 2025 (public experiments included)?
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In 2025, what % of EA lists "AI risk" as their top cause?
46% chance
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