The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030. | Manifold

The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030.

28

1kṀ1791

2029

40%

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Something we'd pay $10 million to avert.

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Effective Altruism

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"Progressive" and "rationalist" aren't opposed. You might be thinking of —

progressive vs. libertarian
progressive vs. reactionary
progressives & libertarians vs. reactionaries & neofascists
rationalist vs. post-rationalist
rationalist vs. mysterian
something else

What exactly is meant by "progressive" in contrast to rationalist?

Who's "we"?

This needs much clearer resolution criteria. You can make the argument this has already happened.

Can you name any examples of a split you'd pay 10 million to avert?

People are also trading

Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in 2030?

Will EA renounce utilitarianism as a guiding principle by the end of 2030?

Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?

How much will AI advances impact EA research effectiveness, by 2030?

Will members of the EA community create an EA-focused university by 2030?

If AI doesn't destroy humanity, what proportion of future value (relative to 2023 EAs' CEV) will be attained?

Will EA sentiment surrounding SBF trend positive by 2040?

Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

Related questions

Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in 2030?

Will EA renounce utilitarianism as a guiding principle by the end of 2030?

Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?

How much will AI advances impact EA research effectiveness, by 2030?

Will members of the EA community create an EA-focused university by 2030?

If AI doesn't destroy humanity, what proportion of future value (relative to 2023 EAs' CEV) will be attained?

Will EA sentiment surrounding SBF trend positive by 2040?

Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

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