The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030. | Manifold

The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030.

26

1kṀ1455

2029

55%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Something we'd pay $10 million to avert.

️ AI Alignment

Effective Altruism

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

"Progressive" and "rationalist" aren't opposed. You might be thinking of —

progressive vs. libertarian
progressive vs. reactionary
progressives & libertarians vs. reactionaries & neofascists
rationalist vs. post-rationalist
rationalist vs. mysterian
something else

What exactly is meant by "progressive" in contrast to rationalist?

Who's "we"?

This needs much clearer resolution criteria. You can make the argument this has already happened.

Can you name any examples of a split you'd pay 10 million to avert?

Related questions

Will EA split into 2 parties before 2025?

If no other big events happen and there is a big inter-community listening exercise, will EA split into 2 parties before 2025?

Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in Q4 2025?

How much will AI advances impact EA research effectiveness, by 2030?

EA will have a noticeably less sexually libertine culture in 2025 for the 90th percentile EA, than before 2023, looking back.

Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in 2030?

Will EA renounce utilitarianism as a guiding principle by the end of 2030?

There will be significant bad blood within EA over disagreements about feminism before 2025

Will members of the EA community create an EA-focused university by 2030?

Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?

Related questions

Will EA split into 2 parties before 2025?

Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in 2030?

If no other big events happen and there is a big inter-community listening exercise, will EA split into 2 parties before 2025?

Will EA renounce utilitarianism as a guiding principle by the end of 2030?

Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in Q4 2025?

There will be significant bad blood within EA over disagreements about feminism before 2025

How much will AI advances impact EA research effectiveness, by 2030?

Will members of the EA community create an EA-focused university by 2030?

EA will have a noticeably less sexually libertine culture in 2025 for the 90th percentile EA, than before 2023, looking back.

Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules