Will approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
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To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that support improved democratic mechanisms along the lines of approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc, and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars.

"Along the lines of approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc" is intrinsically a somewhat fuzzy category, but I intend to keep a narrow focus on new kinds of democratic mechanisms, including Aubrey-Tang-style stuff like Polis, but excluding things like prediction markets & futarchy. It is okay by me if the intended use of these voting/funding mechanisms is for traditional political governance, or philanthropic decisionmaking, or gathering people's opinions to inform an AI reward function, or whatever.

"EA funders" means places like OpenPhil, LTFF, SFF, Longview Philanthropy, Founders Fund, GiveWell, ACX Grants, etc. Some example "EA-adjacent" funding sources that wouldn't count, even if their money goes directly to this cause area: Patrick Collison, Yuri Milner, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel. This is obviously a fuzzy distinction (what if one of the aforementioned billionares becomes noticeably more EA-influenced by 2030? etc), but I'll try my best to resolve the question in the spirit of reflecting how the EA community has grown over time.

For markets about other cause-area-candidates (like farmed-invertebrate welfare and climate geoengineering!), check out the "New EA Cause Area?" tag!

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Does Hare's method count as "new kinds of democratic mechanisms"? It's considered a "reform" in the US and has the most "momentum" but is over a century old.

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