Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Basic
13
171
2030
71%
chance

"Mass-movement political activism" = groups that organize protests, do letter-writing campaigns to congressmen, etc... people talking into megaphones, a somewhat simplified message & somewhat adversarial approach to politics, you get the idea. As opposed to think-tank-style groups that are primarily focused on elite persuasion or shaping detailed legislation. Examples include "PauseAI" and the people who hired this truck protesting against Responsible Scaling Policies. The message of the activism doesn't have to be "pause AI" or even X-risk focused; it just has to be broadly pro-regulation of AI.

To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that support mass-movement AI activism, and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars.

"EA funders" means places like OpenPhil, LTFF, SFF, Longview Philanthropy, Founders Fund, GiveWell, ACX Grants, etc. Some example "EA-adjacent" funding sources that wouldn't count, even if their money goes directly to this cause area: Patrick Collison, Yuri Milner, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel. This is obviously a fuzzy distinction (what if one of the aforementioned billionares becomes noticeably more EA-influenced by 2030? etc), but I'll try my best to resolve the question in the spirit of reflecting how the EA community has grown over time.

Note that if the support is more indirect / obfuscated than a standard public grant, it doesn't count. (I am thinking of something like -- OpenPhil never makes an ordinary grant, but instead one of the leaders of OpenPhil gives a bunch of their personal money to a mass-movement campaign, and writes a blog post heavily implying that OpenPhil condones the campaign without explicitly saying they support it, etc. That wouldn't count towards the $10m threshold.)

For markets about other cause-area-candidates (like S-risk prevention and climate geoengineering!), check out the "New EA Cause Area?" tag!

Get Ṁ600 play money

More related questions