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In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?
21% chance
Will there be an AI inference compute crunch in 2027?
45% chance
The % of people who will think top AI firms are racing in 2026 (Resolves to Yes/Probably on poll)
62% chance
At the beginning of 2027, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
71% chance
"AI 2027" report's predictions borne out by 2027?
34% chance
Which "AI 2027" predictions will be right by Late 2026?
Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?
39% chance
In 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters?
64% chance
Will AI be considered safe in 2030? (resolves to poll)
60% chance
In 2028, will AI rank at least as high as abortion on Gallup's poll of America's most important problem?
80% chance