In 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters?

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2028

45%

chance

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This is similar to https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big, but I wanted to control for the possibility that abortion might not be a big political issue.

Update 2026-03-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on the balance of evidence rather than a specific source.

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What source will you use for resolution?

@MachiNi Probably just the balance of evidence instead of a specific source. I'm not sure it will be close, but I'll think more if it is.

@JoshSnider according to this survey posted on Alexander’s market, AI is near the bottom quartile of top concerns though it’s rising fast. Is that the kind of data you have in mind?

@MachiNi Yeah, I expect there to be plenty of surveys about this in 2028.

This should be lower (than Scott's market) both due to abortion possibly being a low-priority issue and also due to excluding other political criteria like money spent trying to influence regulation.