Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?

Will over 50% of households in any developed country use an AI assistant for daily decision-making by the end of 2030?

Will >50% of Fortune 500 global managers report regularly using generative AI for work by June 30, 2025?

Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2050, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Will a major AI company acknowledge the possibility of conscious AIs by 2026?

By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans?

At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

At the beginning of 2025, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

At the beginning of 2027, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?