Currently Rocket Lab is planning on sending an atomospheric probe to Venus with a target launch date of January 2025:

https://venuscloudlife.com/small-mission/

https://www.rocketlabusa.com/missions/upcoming-missions/first-private-mission-to-venus/

This market resolve YES if Rocket Lab succesfully delivers any kind of atmospheric measurement probe into the Venusian atmosphere by the end of 2026. The probe does not need to successfully collect data or function; it just needs to actually enter the atmosphere.

I have chosen a close time of 2026 to accomodate both the travel time to Venus and smaller delays.