Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2026?
18
Ṁ1kṀ2.2k
Dec 31
94%
Falcon Heavy
83%
Starship
83%
Zhuque 3
83%
Long March 12A
80%
Long March 5
80%
Long March 10B
76%
LVM3
76%
Zhuque 2
76%
Vikram 1
66%
Soyuz 5
66%
H3
66%
Nuri
66%
Long March 10A
66%
Agnibaan
60%
Isar Spectrum
50%
RFA One
50%
Ceres-2
50%
Nebula-1
50%
Hyperbola-3
50%
Miura 5

Resolves to all correct answers. Either the payload or the uppermost stage must be reported to reach orbit*.

Feel free to suggest additions; I will add them, but there should be at least some question about whether or not a launch will happen in 2026 (am more happy to entertain speculation on the unlikely to launch end)

*Starship near-orbits don't count

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Kinetica-2
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202603/1357880.shtml?fbclid=IwY2xjawQ3UwFleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBicmlkETBKUzhoM01oZllrZ3pNNmRTc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHuLBEuDEeiUsQGVQZlQgW-OAP9YM6UooIyVUGcTF-Aw9n428kLiJ678V4-1M_aem_-AzUD_oFlBOYhAKo90wBIA
Kinetica-2 liquid-propellant rocket, developed by China's commercial space firm CAS Space, ignited with a thunderous roar around 7 pm, roaring to life for its maiden flight.

The new rocket model sent the New March 01 technology demonstration satellite, the New March 02 satellite (experiment cargo spacecraft) and the TS 01 Educational Satellite into their designated orbits, marking a full success of the launch vehicle's inaugural flight.

@JoshuaWilkes
https://www.indiatoday.in/science/story/watch-russia-launches-meteorological-satellite-from-frozen-baikonur-launchpad-2867322-2026-02-12
The satellite separated eight minutes post-final burn, bolstering continuous Earth observation amid global climate scrutiny.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwiBFPB0Vgs

Ariane 64
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LV7mX4HGayg
reached orbit but not sure when payload deploy occurs.

@JoshuaWilkes This is set to close in only a few hours.