Which will be the first Starship launch authorised under a multi-launch license? #FAA
2
37
165
2025
16%
Flight 4
16%
Flight 5
16%
Flight 6
36%
Flight 7
16%
Other

Resolution criteria: Resolves to the upcoming flight once the FAA publishes a license that authorises SpaceX to perform multiple full stack launches of Starship.

Context: So far each of the three Starship launches have occurred under launch licenses that only authorised the one launch, and thus SpaceX has had to apply for a new licence (or rather a modification of the existing license) before each flight. This process takes time, potentially delaying SpaceX's timelines, and both SpaceX and the FAA are keen to get to the point where that process isn't required between every flight. The FAA's Kevin Coleman stated recently that "we want to get away from the launch by launch approvals and get more into what Part 450 was really designed for, which is an approval of a portfolio of launches."

Additional clarifications:

As of the time of writing, April 18th, there have been three full stack launches of Starship

SpaceX doesn't need to actually perform multiple launches under the license, nor does it even need to be likely that they will. The only requirement is that it needs to be at least theoretically possible for them to perform multiple launches without needing to receive a new license or a modification of an existing license. (I.e. a license that authorises multiple launches conditional on some objective being met or something would still resolve the market).

For simplicity and promptness of resolution, the market is resolved to the upcoming flight as soon as a license that meets the criterion is published, even if the upcoming flight isn't planned to or doesn't end up occurring under that license.

I reserve the right to resolve the market N/A if the circumstances around Starship change sufficiently such that the market doesn't make sense (eg if Starship development is stopped entirely or the FAA is replaced by another organisation).

Related markets:

/chrisjbillington/will-the-faa-issue-spacex-a-license

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You say "before which flight" that means a vote on seventh includes all previous flights/options... I assume that is not the case, but it implies to be.

@NiklasBergstrom Ahh good point, that was maybe not the best wording. Yeah no my intention was to refer to "in the period before which flight (singular)" as opposed to "before which flights (plural)".

Will update the title and description for clarity

@JDF & @notarealuser if either of you bet under the assumption above, many apologies, message me and I'm happy to refund you your mana