Will the FAA issue SpaceX a license before the end of 2024 that authorises multiple Starship–SuperHeavy launches?

So far, all launch licenses issued by the FAA for Starship–SuperHeavy launches have authorised only a single flight. For each subsequent flight, SpaceX has had to seek an additional license, or for their previous license to be amended to authorise a further flight.

This market resolves YES if before the end of 2024, US eastern time, the FAA issues a launch license that authorises more than one Starship–SuperHeavy launch.

For the purposes of this market, each amendment to a previous license counts as a license issuance by the FAA.

Arbitrary conditions in the license that must be met in order for a second launch to be authorised are fine, as long it is possible that under some circumstances, even if very unlikely, SpaceX would be authorised to make a second launch without an additional license being issued.

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The FAA has updated SpaceX’s Starship launch license after every flight to date to reflect changes in the mission, such as the different suborbital trajectory used on the most recent flight. However, Coleman said the agency wants to move to a process where the license is valid for “portfolio of launches” rather than individual ones. That is particularly important, he added, because SpaceX is planning six to nine more Starship launches this year.

That is part of a broader effort to streamline the launch licensing process to address criticism from industry and Congress that the FAA is moving too slowly on approving launch licenses under a new set of regulations known as Part 450.