Which Starship will be the first to be caught?

1.1kṀ4207

2026

Ship 37

Ship 38

Ship 39

14%

Ship 40

16%

Ship 41

15%

Ship 42

13%

Ship 43

Starship will never be caught

26%

Other

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the first SpaceX Starship to successfully land on the catch arms (chopsticks) of a launch tower. The vehicle must come to rest in one piece on the chopsticks, but any following event, including destruction, will not affect the resolution.

Notes

S37 and S38 are the final remaining Block 2 ships. S39 is the first Block 3 ship.

Newer ships may be added as needed.

SpaceX

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Space

Commercial spaceflight

Starship Launch Party

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If there is sufficient evidence Starship will never be caught, this will resolve N/A

This is a bit disappointing. I do think Starship will be caught, but if it's not, that's us being wrong, not something that goes against the concept of the market. Never is conceptually included in Other, which is an option available for us to bet on.

I think adding an explicit Never option before it's needed would be much better though, for the sake of resolution simplicity if it were to become needed.