Resolves Yes if IFT-3 launches by May and successfully demonstrates propellant transfer.
Defining reaching orbit as a stable orbit and completing at least one revolution around Earth
Defining successful propellant transfer based on how SpaceX/NASA report
Elon Musk stated IFT-3 goals here:
https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxSnl8J96XUzY43RZ8WxTcJVBoEknjqji9?si=yQUOdCUXq3XoK622
Therefore the resolution options are:
Will resolve Yes if they reach true orbit and demonstrate propellant transfer
Will resolve No if they reach true orbit and fail to demonstrate propellant transfer
Will resolve No if they fail to reach true orbit and succeed in demonstrating propellant transfer
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@ChristopherKalitin It does count propellant transfer within a singular starship. However we had a conversation about my definition of orbit - in which case the current sentiment is that IFT-3 does not plan to reach orbit, similar to IFT-2's "near-orbital" trajectory.