Will SpaceX launch IFT-3 by July AND successfully demonstrate in-orbit propellant transfer?

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Ṁ4370

resolved Mar 14

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Resolves Yes if IFT-3 launches by July and successfully demonstrates propellant transfer.

Defining reaching orbit as a stable orbit and completing at least one revolution around Earth
Defining successful propellant transfer based on how SpaceX/NASA report

Elon Musk stated IFT-3 goals here:

https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxSnl8J96XUzY43RZ8WxTcJVBoEknjqji9?si=yQUOdCUXq3XoK622

Therefore the resolution options are:

Will resolve Yes if they reach true orbit and demonstrate propellant transfer
Will resolve No if they reach true orbit and fail to demonstrate propellant transfer
Will resolve No if they fail to reach true orbit and succeed in demonstrating propellant transfer

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This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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How will this resolve if IFT-3 does not involve fuel transfer but IFT-4 is by July and does include fuel transfer?

predicted NO

@TimDuffy I think the question only refers to IFT-3, so if IFT-3 does not do a fuel transfer or does not go to orbit, it should resolve NO, no matter what happens in later flights. @NGK is this correct?

predicted YES

@dp9000 Yep that’s correct. This only applies for IFT-3. If IFT-3 fails to meet these requirements, all subsequent monthly market also resolve to No.

bought Ṁ30 NO from 42% to 34%

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