https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1963333192938856662

Resolution criteria

• Resolve YES if, between 00:00 UTC Jan 1, 2026 and 23:59 UTC Dec 31, 2026, SpaceX publicly confirms at least three distinct on‑orbit propellant transfer operations between two Starship vehicles (e.g., tanker→ship, tanker→depot), with at least one vehicle identified by SpaceX as “V3”/Block 3. Each qualifying “time” requires an orbital rendezvous/docking and a non‑zero transfer of cryogenic propellant across a vehicle‑to‑vehicle interface. Internal tank‑to‑tank transfers within a single Starship do not count; suborbital or ground tests do not count. Transfers performed during one continuous docked session count as one operation. Verification sources must include SpaceX or NASA official channels.

  • Primary verification: SpaceX Updates page, SpaceX’s official X posts/webcasts, or NASA HLS/Artemis blog posts confirming the transfer(s). Examples of where the result will be posted:

    • https://www.spacex.com/updates/

    • https://x.com/SpaceX

    • https://www.nasa.gov/general/nasa-artemis-mission-progresses-with-spacex-starship-test-flight/ (nasa.gov)

• Resolve NO otherwise (including if transfers occur but not ≥3, or occur with earlier/later Starship variants only).

• “Next year” is 2026. “Orbital” means in Earth orbit as described by SpaceX/NASA. If SpaceX/NASA use different naming but explicitly identify the vehicles as Block 3/V3, they qualify. If official sources are ambiguous, the market creator will use consensus across the above sources and reputable mission trackers (e.g., Spaceflight Now’s Starship coverage) for tie‑breakers. (spaceflightnow.com)

Background

• NASA and SpaceX completed an internal (tank‑to‑tank) cryogenic propellant transfer demo on Starship’s March 14, 2024 flight; ship‑to‑ship transfer is the harder next step required for Artemis HLS. (nasa.gov, spaceflightnow.com)

• Block 3 (“V3” in some SpaceX/Musk communications) is the Starship iteration outfitted with hardware for on‑orbit refueling (docking ports/transfer plumbing). Media and community sources often use “V3” interchangeably with “Block 3.” (en.wikipedia.org)

• Musk has indicated V3 would see heavy activity beginning in 2026; traders should treat such claims as aspirational until corroborated by flight logs or official posts. (teslanorth.com)

Considerations

• Demonstrating multiple ship‑to‑ship refueling ops in a single calendar year implies a high launch cadence and rapid turnarounds of two orbital Starships; FAA authorized up to 25 Starship launches/year from South Texas in 2025, but actual cadence has lagged such ceilings. (chron.com)

• Ship‑to‑ship cryogenic transfer at scale has never been done; data from the 2024 internal transfer (≈5% mass‑measurement accuracy) must generalize to docked vehicles, adding docking, fluid coupling, and boil‑off control complexity. (spaceflightnow.com)

• The user‑linked Musk post sets the ambition (“several times next year with Starship V3”); this market resolves on executed, officially confirmed operations, not statements of intent. (Link for context: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1963333192938856662.)