Resolves Yes if IFT-3 launches by June and successfully demonstrates propellant transfer.
Defining reaching orbit as a stable orbit and completing at least one revolution around Earth
Defining successful propellant transfer based on how SpaceX/NASA report
Elon Musk stated IFT-3 goals here:
https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxSnl8J96XUzY43RZ8WxTcJVBoEknjqji9?si=yQUOdCUXq3XoK622
Therefore the resolution options are:
Will resolve Yes if they reach true orbit and demonstrate propellant transfer
Will resolve No if they reach true orbit and fail to demonstrate propellant transfer
Will resolve No if they fail to reach true orbit and succeed in demonstrating propellant transfer
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@NGK I had been betting yes on this, until the full orbit requirement was pointed out to me - I failed to notice this earlier.
IFT-3 is planned to be the slightly suborbital trajectory again, so these markets are practically guaranteed to resolve NO.
But SpaceX is planning to do the propellant transfer on the suborbital flight nonetheless.
Maybe the full orbit requirement was important to you or maybe it wasn't, but it means these markets unfortunately don't have much to do with whether a propellant transfer demonstration takes place.
@chrisjbillington What's your source on IFT-3 planned to be slightly suborbital? I haven't yet seen this stated explicitly, and the planned propellant transfer (new to flight 3) suggests to me they are planning at least a few orbits.
@JessRiedel A SpaceX employee said at the Astro Awards that the planned trajectory was the same as IFT-2. (According to @Mqrius: https://manifold.markets/Mqrius/will-starship-ift3-try-for-full-orb#v2zhC0OBR9MUdEbFFFPa)
But I also though after watching Musk's talk to his employees that he had many chances to imply things that would require full orbit, yet didn't, so it sounded suborbital to me then too. FWIW Musk said IFT-2 "would have made it to orbit if <blahblahblah>", suggesting he uses the term "orbit" more loosely than the definition used by this market.
They've got an hour or so after SECO and before re-entry on the suborbital trajectory, so although I don't know the details of the propellant transfer, it's not obvious to me that that wouldn't be enough time.