Will SpaceX launch IFT-3 by February AND successfully demonstrate in-orbit propellant transfer?
Basic
12
Ṁ7283
resolved Mar 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves Yes if IFT-3 launches by February and successfully demonstrates propellant transfer.

  • Defining reaching orbit as a stable orbit and completing at least one revolution around Earth

  • Defining successful propellant transfer based on how SpaceX/NASA report

Elon Musk stated IFT-3 goals here:

https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxSnl8J96XUzY43RZ8WxTcJVBoEknjqji9?si=yQUOdCUXq3XoK622

Therefore the resolution options are:

  • Will resolve Yes if they reach true orbit and demonstrate propellant transfer

  • Will resolve No if they reach true orbit and fail to demonstrate propellant transfer

  • Will resolve No if they fail to reach true orbit and succeed in demonstrating propellant transfer

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Multimarkets exist these days, this would be so much nicer as an unlinked multimarket

predicted NO

@Mqrius I realised after I had done up to June that it would’ve worked better as a multi market. Oh well

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