Will Starship launch on its first attempt?
resolved Apr 17

If SpaceX puts up a livestream and then scrubs for technical reasons, this market resolves No.

If it can't launch due to weather or range violations, then the market remains open.

If the hold down clamps release, this market resolves Yes.

If the engines ignite but the hold down clamps don't release, this resolves No.

SpaceX is allowed to pause the countdown or recycle before ignition; as long as their livestream keeps going I still count that as their first attempt.

(Let me know if you can think of more corner cases, and if these conditions make sense!)

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bought Ṁ1,000 of NO


predicted NO

Starship launch attempt today!! Scheduled for 3PM Central European Time, that's 1h from now. (Maybe 9 minutes later)

Here's SpaceX's own stream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5QXreqOrTA

Goes live 14:15

SpaceX Mission Control audio stream, live now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ln8hXptcA90

Here's Tim Dodd's stream, he tends to have very nice commentary, live now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Vb9hFqF6i0

Here's NSF's stream, they've been commentating for a few hours now.


predicted NO

I'm hyped. T minus 2h30

predicted YES
predicted NO

@chrisjbillington nah, I think that depends too much on what Jonathan counts as a launch attempt. I think if it's a scrub due to technical reasons then his market doesn't resolve, whereas mine here does.

bought Ṁ10 of YES
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