Will @Mira and @MiraBot break 1 million mana in profit? (2023)
42
925
แน€730
resolved Dec 4
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if the sum of @Mira and @MiraBot 's all-time profit graph on Manifold Markets is greater than 1 million at any time on or before December 31, 2023. Otherwise resolves NO.

In the unlikely event it's so close it's uncertain whether it occurred or not (e.g., different APIs give different numbers, some of which are YES and some are NO; or floating point rounding error across all bets), then it resolves 50%.

There are mechanisms to manipulate profit graphs (e.g., buying YES shares at 1% on a fake market up through 99% and closing a market). Rather than itemize every possible scenario, any specific market can be disputed. In case of a dispute, a poll will be created asking "Is X market intended to manipulate Mira's profit graph?". If the poll rules it is manipulative, Mira's profit on market X will be removed from the profit graph. Only public markets are valid.

If the profit graph temporarily shows 1 million due to a bug, that doesn't count. "Bug" means that the displayed portfolio value as of that time is inconsistent with a manually-computed portfolio rollup using my entire transaction history and market resolution history.

Borrowed money from others doesn't directly influence the profit graph, so is not considered here. Only profits from markets do, and those are covered by the poll mechanism.

Profits(realized or unrealized) are considered valid except for exactly these 3 cases:

  • A "bug" as defined above

  • Profit(realized or unrealized) on a market ruled manipulative

  • A private market

Get แน€1,000 play money

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€1,129
2แน€70
3แน€42
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bought แน€50 of NO

It looks like there was a temporary profit spike for 3 hours in /firstuserhere/will-firstuserhere-break-the-265-da caused by some unrealized profit manipulation.

Some of these personal goals markets have independent verification, like /firstuserhere/will-firstuserhere-coauthor-a-neuri . But breaking a streak after running out forgiveness points feels like "this market resolves however I feel like". Do we exclude these markets from the calculation?

In case of a dispute, a poll will be created asking "Is X market intended to manipulate Mira's profit graph?". If the poll rules it is manipulative, Mira's profit on market X will be removed from the profit graph.

I'll include a poll below this comment on whether these markets should be included in the calculation, and won't vote in it myself.

predicted NO

@Mira Like this comment if you think the 271+ streak market should be included in the calculation.

predicted NO

@Mira Like this comment if you think the 271+ streak market should be excluded.

predicted YES

@Mira resolves YES

bought แน€6,666 of YES

@firstuserhere mira + mirabot > 1 mil

bought แน€10,000 of YES

@firstuserhere Confirming, see the same thing.

bought แน€56 of YES

Temporary swings are irrelevant, you must know.

predicted YES

M910k

predicted YES

@Mira almost there

predicted YES

Peak of M800k right now.

Peak of M700k yesterday. Only 3 months left in the year to get a 50% return though.

predicted YES

@Mira on the right trajectory, you got this!

>Resolves YES if the sum of @Mira and @MiraBot 's all-time profit graph on Manifold Markets is positive at any time on or before December 31, 2023. Otherwise resolves NO.

I'm guessing this is a mistake and you meant above 1 million?

predicted YES

@ShadowyZephyr Ah yeah, originally it was "same rules as this market but for 1 million":

Then I copy-pasted it and forgot to change it.

predicted YES

Halfway there! And that was starting from negative M155k.

predicted YES

Since the anti-manipulation rules don't work if you can't point to a private market to exclude, I added a statement that only public markets will count.

@Mira how will we know how much profit is from public markets?

@Mira is "probably wait 24 hours" part of the resolution criteria? Please be clear and put anything that affects this market (like the clarification of any time in 2023) in the description.

predicted YES

@TobyBW For "public markets": You can use the API or manually tally all my markets at the time if it's not obvious. It's intended as a failsafe more than a convenience. By querying every bet from every market I've traded in and replaying them forward, it should theoretically be possible to reconstruct my exact unrealized profit at any time.

There's no 24 hours requirement - if there's a dispute, the poll mechanism is responsible for disgorging any markets. So a specific market must be identified and voted on, there is always a specific computable set of numbers being considered, and the poll merely decides which one is selected.

Any time during 2023 or only at the end?

predicted YES

@firstuserhere Any time, but if somebody tries to manipulate it by e.g. offering to send me money and laundering profits through a fake market, the anti-manipulation rules from the other market are still in effect.

I'll probably wait 24 hours too to confirm it sticks.

bought แน€10 of YES

@Mira sounds good